The NHC

Subscribers Email - Arc Day 2011

2011-11-10T19:58:00.000Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 2 October 2011 11:23
subject: Arc Day 2011

15:15 0.5pt Win Danedream @ 25s Generally

15:15

Danedream has had experience on Arc day previously in the Marcel Boussac, her three year old career has been exceptional. 3rd in the Italian Derby, she came back 3 weeks later to win the Oaks, and under Starke she went on to win two all age Group 1s in Germany. Both times she showed speed when quickening off paces and due to her winning in Italy and Germany only she's a bigger price than she should be.

Subscribers Email - 30th September 2011

2011-11-10T19:57:00.000Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 30 September 2011 12:33
subject: The NHC - Friday 30th Sept

3:30 0.5pt W Caravan Rolls On @ 12s

A few of these are likely to make it, as such it should play into the hands of a closer. Well Sharp is of interest, and no surprise to see him backed this morning, however the other that confirmed hold up performer seems to have been overlooked here.

Weekender in August had a Peter Chapple-Hyam stable tour where he stated that Caravan Rolls On would have been expected to run at Royal Ascot but suffered a setback presumably following his Beverley run. He was entered in the Queens Vase, and no doubt that they would have looked at some of the handicap races for him also if he was able to get a run or two in after Beverley.

He returned from his enforced break with a win at Wolverhampton, and he won with the authority to suggest that he has still got a fair bit of improvement in his locker, which can't be really said for the majority of his rivals today.

At 12s, he's overpriced given that the trip and make up of the race will suit, and as shown at Wolves he can quicken when required so the short run in shouldn't be too much of a hinderence if well positioned.

Subscribers Email - 16th September 2011

2011-11-10T19:56:00.001Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: "dgkelly84@gmail.com"
date: 16 September 2011 10:57
subject: The NHC - 6:00 New

0.5pt Win Albert Bridge @ 9s Ladbrokes 17/2 Gen.

Be interesting to see how Dubai Prince runs today as that will have an effect on the Champion Stakes market, but as a punting perspective today, it's all about the 6:00.

Albert Bridge has an interesting profile, late to the scene as a 2yo, he was hammered in the market on both his trys. 25s into 12s and 8s into 4s, and both runs were of promise. Looked a slow galloping sort, stayed on nicely on debut, and on his second start he was outpaced at vital point and again looked a stayer.

First time up this year, third career start, surprise surprise he was sent over a mile at a sharp track no doubt mission was a handicap mark, and that has been accomplished with this lowly 75 rating.

At 9s and 17/2 he was value, as shown as 13/2, 6s generally, mainly due to the 4f step up in trip, and the long Newbury straight.

Subscribers Email - 3rd September 2011

2011-11-10T19:55:00.000Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 3 September 2011 11:20
subject: The NHC - Saturday 3rd September 2011

Haydock 17:30 0.5pt Win Motivado @ 14s Generally

Subscribers Email - 19th August 2011

2011-11-10T19:54:00.000Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 19 August 2011 10:38
subject: The NHC - Friday 19th August 2011

3.05 York (10 runners) Sky Bet Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
Group 3, 1m1f , Good, 3yo+, Win: £42533

1pt Win Green Destiny @ 5s Generally

Green Destiny comes here on the back of a substandard run, but again the race he ran in wasn't the target. At Ascot he ran, and pre race connections stated the John Smiths Cup was the target, as such no surprise to see he wasn't mullered to get somewhere. Again, at Goodwood he ran purely for being well in at the weights, but 1m was always going to be too sharp at a track like Goodwood where they'd be going too quick for him. Today, he's up in trip to 1m1f, he's back at York, and ultimately this would have been target following his win in the John Smiths Cup.

Subscribers Email - 13th August 2011

2011-11-10T19:53:00.000Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 13 August 2011 11:10
subject: The NHC - Saturday 13th August 2011 (Analysis to follow)

Ripon 14:55
1m 0f Class 3 VW Van Centre West Yorkshire Handicap (3yo plus)

0.5pt Win Diescentric @ 5s Generally

Easiest assignment to date, he has to be of interest given the booking of Hanagan, Cecil sending him here and the favourable draw is the icing on the cake.
Has been campaigning in decent races through this season, but at all times he's looked as if he is a miler, and we are still waiting to see the same horse we saw win the Wood Ditton last season.

Subscribers Email - 6th August 2011

2011-11-10T19:52:00.002Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 6 August 2011 11:31
subject: The NHC - Saturday 6th August 2011

2.30 Ascot (10 runners) Titanic Belfast Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap)
Class 3, 1m4f , Good To Soft, 3yo, Win: £14754

I think we saw in the King George the abilities, or rather inablitities of Ahmed Ajtebi, and as such the Shergar Cup meet see's Parlour Games get a jockey on his back for once, that being Colm O'Donoghue.

Looking back at his run at Ascot in latest, you could tell the pace was slow, hence the move by Aitken on the back straight with Parlour Games blocked in and going all too late in the home straight this was a shining example of poor race riding. I wasn't expecting to see a nigh on double figure price about him today given he has been competing in some decent handicaps, but @ 9s with Will Hill he is value.

0.5pt Win Parlour Games @ 9s Will Hill (10s available but they'll be subject to R4 given reserves in market)

Subscribers Email - 30th July 2011

2011-11-10T19:52:00.001Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 30 July 2011 09:53
subject: The NHC - Saturday 30th July 2011

4.05 Newmarket (July) (12 runners) Adnams Tally Ho Handicap
Class 3, 1m2f , Good To Firm, 3yo+, Win: £9704

0.5pt Win Haylaman @ 8s Generally

Subscribers Email - 28th July 2011

2011-11-10T19:51:00.001Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 27 July 2011 18:40
subject: The NHC - Glorious Goodwood Thursday

3.15 Goodwood (16 runners) Artemis Goodwood Cup (Group 2)
Group 2, 2m , Good, 3yo+, Win: £56710

0.5pt EW Lost In The Moment @ 18s Bet365 (1/3 1-2-3) & Coral

Everyone is drooling over Saptapadi, however Lost In The Moments passage was just as choppy, with Barzalona sat up in his saddle for a good two furlongs with nowhere to go. If we had the current Ebor fav in this field he'd have been half the price, and as such the 18s 1/3 1-2-3 was too big.

Improver throughout his 3yo career, it continued when he transferred to Godolphin.

2010 - Second in the Silver Cambridgeshire, he followed it up with a win at Newbury beeing likes of Right Step comfortably.
2011 - Nk defeat to Jutland, followed up 6 days later with a good 2nd in Wolferton and then 3rd in the John Smiths Cup reversing placings with Beachfire.

Subscribers Email - 2nd July 2011

2011-11-10T19:48:00.002Z

from: Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to: Daniel Kelly
date: 2 July 2011 10:20
subject: The NHC - Saturday 2nd July 2011

Haydock 2:15
0.5pt W Highland Castle @ 17/2

Highland Castle ran well on debut against a good type in Timeline which we are yet to see again. He followed this up with a good win over Gatewood, who has since won his maiden. Both HC and Gatewood are types to follow.

Sandown 3:40
0.5pt W Chiberta King @ 11s

Stayers are a poor bunch this season, and CK has two good runs to his name this year, and even after R4 deductions he's a big price.

Subscribers Email 30/06/11

2011-07-04T12:07:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 30 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - Thursday 30th June 2011 (Analysis to follow)
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 30 Jun (4 days ago)

4.00 Haydock (9 runners) Tuffx Conservatory Roof Glass Handicap
Class 3, 1m , Good To Firm, 3yo+, Win: £7124

0.5pt Win Classic Colori @ 10s Generally (11s Sporting Bet)

After looking at this race you've got pace on all 3 of inside stalls, which in turn diminishes the chances of Caldercruix, who even though is well handicapped, I'm still living in hope he is running in the Straight Mile Championship @ Redcar.

Either way, due to this Classic Colori is a big price given a few things. Held in high regard, he ran in the French 2000 Guineas last season, and this year all mentions of him, and looking at runnings he's very much a quirky sort.

Visor on, wide stall so can slot in behind the pace, 10s? Thank you very much.

9.10 Newbury (9 runners) Stan James Handicap
Class 4, 1m4f , Good, 3yo, Win: £4080

0.5pt Schism @ 12s Bet365 & Stan James

Was reviewing All Annalena last week as she was entered at Windsor, and noticed this Shirocco half brother.

Impressive at Chepstow, he's bound to benefit from the better pace on handicap debut as he was doing his best work late on at Chepstow. He won despite the course nature, as he's described as a big rangy sort. Today, with course more galloping, and not as quick as at Chepstow, he has snook in under the radar.

Subscribers Email 26/06/11

2011-07-04T12:06:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 26 June 2011
subject The NHC - Sunday 26th June 2011 (Analysis To Follow)
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 26 Jun (8 days ago)

4.10 Salisbury (12 runners) H S Lester Memorial Handicap
Class 4, 1m6f , Good, 4yo+, Win: £4533

0.5pt Win Red Courtier @ 8s Bet365

Red Courtier was a selection earlier in the season, but since the application of cheek pieces his performance has improved. He was beaten by a solid marker off a quick pace in Porgy and last time encounted traffic problems. At 8s he's overpriced.

2:45 Saint-cloud (FR)
Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud (Group 1) (4yo+) (Turf)
(4yo+) Winner £197,034AR/RU
Soft 1m4f Number of runners: 5

0.5pt Win Silver Pond @ 9s Generally

In France Silver Pond has a lot of things in his favour. Ground will suit him, trip of 11f+ is optimum, and Peslier in the saddle.
Again, he's overpriced.

Subscribers Email 25/06/11

2011-07-04T12:04:00.003+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 25 June 2011
subject The NHC - Saturday 25th June 2011 - Analysis To Follow
mailed-by googlemail.com

3.05 Newcastle (19 runners) John Smiths Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap)
Class 2, 2m , Good To Soft, 3yo+, Win: £92475

0.5pt Win Tominator @ 33s Ladbrokes & Will Hill (Bigger prices will be available for short period #blastedpricewise)
0.5pt Win Montaff @ 25s Generally

Apologies, Montaff was 25s Generally rather than the 33s mentioned.

This is a race where I feel many of the market principals have shown their hand too early, where as the selections still have some scope for movement with regards to their marks.

Tominator will be suited by the trip as shown by his staying on effort at Haydock when a selection, Montaff also given his win at Mus and also his good effort behind Blue Bajan.

Both have form on ground, and look way overpriced even at revised prices.

4.45 Newcastle (15 runners) Try totequickpick On All totepool Bets Handicap
Class 4, 1m2f , Good To Soft, 3yo+, Win: £5181

1pt Win McBirney 11/2 Paddy power (5s Generally)

As said yesterday feel Mcbirney is an improving sort, and the trip may have found him out last time. Back over a suitable trip, in a race where there's pace all over, he is a very worthy favourite.

2.45 Newmarket (July) (8 runners) Try timeform.betfair.com On Your Smartphone Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race)
Listed Race, 1m4f , Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £17031

1pt Win Afsare @ 5s Coral (9/2 Generally)

Afsare has disappointed this season, yet he is the only possible front runner this field, and this is a race that Cumani has targeted in the past with the likes Lyric Street. At 5s he's a decent price.

3.55 Newmarket (July) (12 runners) £150,000 Tattersalls Millions 3-Y-O Cup
Class 2, 1m2f , Good To Firm, 3yo, Win: £83654

0.75pt Win Dominant 15/2 Generally
0.25pt Win Sergeant Ablett @ 50 BoylesSports (40s Generally)

Dominant and Sergeant Ablett are plays for differing reasons. Dominant as his run at Sandown has been franked and the Newbury race was a farce, as such deserves another chance.

SA is overpriced based on his runs here on Rowley course and the fact ur also has winning form on easy ground

Subscribers Email 24/06/11

2011-07-04T12:04:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 24 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - Friday 24th June 2011 (Analysis to follow)
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 24 Jun (10 days ago)

3.25 Doncaster (12 runners) March For The Alternative Handicap
Class 4, 1m6½f , Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £4533

0.5pt Win Red Fama @ 14s Coral (12s Generally)

I don't believe the ground is as quick as advertised, and as such feel that this last time out winner is overpriced.

All 4 of his wins have come with ease in the ground, and even though 3 of the 4 wins have came on a RH track, still feel it is more down to going and race nature than preference for direction.

Last time out he beat a field that contained 4 last time out winners, and a couple are well regarded sorts, McBirney is one that I'll be looking at tomorrow price wise as he's still on the upgrade.

6.50 Newcastle (12 runners) E B F Kheleyf Hoppings Stakes (Listed Race)
Listed Race, 1m2f , Soft, 3yo+, Win: £17031

0.75pt Win Piano @ 6s Coral (5s Generally)

Key to this horse is pace of the race, off a good pace, she's a different kettle of fish, and today she's likely to get it.

Improver, who wasn't disgraced off a slow pace last time out, Timepiece is a superior filly to Principal Role, and that race could throw up a couple of winners, I'm already eagerly anticipating the reappearance of Ceilidh House, fingers crossed for 20s+ in the Lancashire Oaks next week.

Also, with Principal Role is closely related to types who need it quick, and if this a weaker race than she could maybe just about get away with it, but this is a decent little heat. Note that Gosden has only sent 10 runners to Newcastle in last 2 years, 3 of them winning.

0.25pt Starkat @ 33s Generally

Again a pace angle, she too is likely to appreciate the ground and the pace on offer. Best run coming at Yarmouth last season giving weight to 108/91/101 rated rivals and the 33s is an insult.

7.35 Newmarket (July) (9 runners) Plasmor Blocks By Rail Silver Anniversary Handicap
Class 4, 1m5f , Good, 3yo, Win: £4533

1pt Win Man Of God @ 5s Generally

Not a line bet at York due to price, today at 5s he is value.

He's what I wrote about him before 13/05 York (Declared NR):

Full brother to the likes of Yesterday, All My Loving and Magical Mystery Tour, he's bound to relish this step up in trip, and off a mark of 74 he's very well treated.

We've seen Parlour Games come out of that maiden to win off a mark of 79, and Ryton Runner will be another who's worth following this season in these sort of races.

Drifted lto, maybe he needed the run, but either way the application of blinkers from a trainer like Gosden is a + in my book, as is the step up to 1m5f. I'd be amazed if he's not high 80s at least by seasons out.

Subscribers Email 22/06/11

2011-07-04T12:01:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 22 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - 22nd June 2011
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 22 Jun (12 days ago)

4.10 Carlisle (16 runners) totesport.com Cumberland Plate (Handicap)
Class 4, 1m3½f , Good, 3yo+, Win: £15542

0.5pt Win George Adamson @ 22s Totesport 20 Generally - NON RUNNER
0.5pt WIn Cashpoint @ 33s Stan James 28s Generally

Furthest north trainer has sent a runner, and a good jockey booking in Richard Kingscote takes the eye.

We've seen the Ascot franked since:

Blissful Moment 2nd @ Royal Ascot
Udabaa Winner @ Haydock
Zuider Zee 3rd @ Epsom Derby Day

Happy to overlook a poor run at Goodwood given the course characteristics, I feel he's overpriced in what is a very open renewal of the Cumberland Plate. Draw was a slight negative, but with two withdrawls on the inside he's effectively coming from stall 11 which is not a huge hindrance.

4.20 Salisbury (11 runners) Ashbrittle Stud Bibury Cup (Handicap)
Class 3, 1m4f , Good To Soft, 3yo, Win: £7771

0.5pt Win Rutland Boy @ 8s SportingBet 7s Generally

Was close to being a bet last time out at Goodwood, as felt he was given an easy time at York, and his run at Goodwood was a step up on that. Outpaced at a vital stage of race, he stayed on steady and was closing at the finish.
Up in trip today, and in a weak looking race, he looks overpriced at 7s

0.5pt Win Colour Vision @ 12s Generally

Fancied him in the Edinburgh Cup at Musselbrugh, and nothing got into it off the pace. As such happy to put a line through that run, and here where early pace isn't such a necessity he too is a big price given on some of his form. So what was said at Musselbrugh still applies today:

Very green throughout his starts at 2, he twice blew his chance away at the stalls, yet his maiden win, and also his run at Chester was a very good run for one so immature mentally.
Beaten that day by Brown Panther who has since followed up in a good handicap at Haydock, that race has the look of a good pointer to decent 3yo handicaps through the season.

Should have followed own advice re Brown Panther & the King George V handicap (D'oh)

Subscribers Email 18/06/11

2011-07-04T12:00:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 18 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - Saturday 18th June 2011
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 18 Jun

2.50 Ayr (9 runners) Scottish Sun Handicap
Class 2, 1m , Good To Soft, 3yo, Win: £15578

1pt Win Barney Rebel @ 9/2 Stan James (4s Generally)

6lb rise is very leninet in my eyes following his win at Sandown, and he's one that very much got away from me.

After reviewing his Newmarket run you can see he raced away from the action and no doubt was hindered by this, at Sandown he pulled clear, and always looked like holding Tullius. The race had the look of a good handicap beforehand, and even though the ground ruined it a little, it will no doubt continue to throw up winners.

3.05 Ascot (9 runners) Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
Group 2, 1m4f , Soft, 4yo+, Win: £61964

0.5pt Win Passion For Gold @ 12s Generally

I couldn't have Await The Dawn in a month of Sundays at odds on on this ground, and as such Passion For Gold is the obvious alternative in my eyes.

He was a highly regarded 2yo culminating in vicotry in the Criterium De Saint Cloud, when defeating a decent field. Mikhail Glinka was winner of the Queens Vase, Zazou 2nd in the German Derby. He did encounter quick ground in the Beresford and was "taken off his feet" when they quickened, as such it was a surprise to see him win at Goodwood last time out.

For me though it was down to the trip, given a sighter over 10 at Lingfield, we saw him stepped upto 12f at Goodwood, and he won with the minimum of fuss. 3rd run after a break, he's now likely to be at his peak and at 12s is a big price.

5.00 Ascot (19 runners) Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)
Class 2, 1m4f , Soft, 3yo+, Win: £31155

0.5pt Win Sharayeen @ 8s Generally
0.5pt Win Heddwyn @ 14s Generally

Selections for two differing reasons.

Sharayeen has a big handicap in him, I'm certain of that, and today he looks destined to run another good race. We've seen that handicap at Newmarket throw up plenty of winners, and todays conditions should suit.

Still ruing the ride given by O'Shea at Newmarket on Soft ground, yet that day he showed he could handle the conditions, today if not given too much to do he should be there or thereabouts.

Heddwyn seemed to run into one at every turn last year, London Stripe, 2nd in King George V Handicap, Green Destiny, improver and likely John Smiths Cup winner, and this year Constant Contact, speedier type on Kempton.

Today he's got everything to suit, good draw, good pilot, suits ground, given a year off following run at Leicester, this big sort will surely come into his own this year in these sort of handicaps.

Subscribers Email 17/06/11

2011-07-04T11:58:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 17 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - Royal Ascot Friday 17/06/11
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 17 Jun

4.25 Ascot (16 runners) Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race)
Listed Race, 1m2f , Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £28385

0.5pt Win Spanish Duke @ 10s Generally

Had him down as a horse to follow if able to settle, missed him at Epsom, but today he has conditions in his favour once again. Drawn well, pace likely to suit, he has a great record with Eddie Ahern and at 10s he's overpriced.

Likely to have found the ground too lively at Goodwood, the handicapper has given him a chance here by dropping him 2lbs and back in h'cap company.

0.5pt Win Bea Remembered @ 16s Generally

Was mightily impressed with her win at Doncaster after traveling the best throughout and settling the race in a matter of strides. She also recorded a very quick time that day, and even though conditions are likely to be different today, she is very much an improver to be on the side of.

Trainer quote from run in Ireland suggested she's not seen to best effect on quick ground, and they were wary of running her on it more than once.

Raised 7lbs for her win at Doncaster, I do feel there is more to come, and with Green Destiny so short in the market then he has to be opposed.

5.00 Ascot (12 runners) Queens Vase (Group 3)
Group 3, 2m , Good To Soft, 3yo, Win: £34062

0.5pt Win Solar Sky @ 5s Generally

Felt that he was the one to take out of "that" Newbury maiden, and even though made hard work of it at Haydock, he still rates the likeliest winner here.

Well bred, and bred for a test, he does take time to get going, at present I'm happy to put that down to inexperience, but even so connections must think this also to step him upto 2 miles.

0.5pt Win Qushchi @ 28s Corals 25s Generally

Bumped into one at Haydock would be an understatement, but what I said when tipping her up then still applies here.

Highly regarded, enough for a tilt at Nell Gwyn, she appreciated the step up in trip at Haydock, and that day was giving weight away. Today, she is in receipt of weight, and at 28s she's overpriced on what we've seen so far on the racecourse.

Trainer has a very sound Strike Rate @ Ascot, and wouldn't have sent her here without thinking has not only a chance of black type, but winning, as off 87 she could have won one or two handicaps before tilt at listed race.

Subscribers Email 16/06/11

2011-07-04T11:58:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 16 June 2011 11:16
subject The NHC - Royal Ascot - Day 3
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 16 Jun

4.25 Ascot (30 runners) Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings)
Class 2, 1m , Good, 3yo, Win: £62310

1pt Win Sagramor @ 8s Generally

Still playing the high draw being best, and drawn 23 is not bad place to be over this straight mile.

This has always been the target, as said by Hughie Morrison before Sagramor winning the Silver Bowl, and as such I take Warwick was a prep, but even so that day he was only one held up that got involved, and as such Ektibas benefited from being up with the pace that day.

At Haydock, he won despite numerous things. Wide on the turn, bumped a few times, blocked in his run up the straight once, before powering home.

He's overpriced, as I was looking he'd be around 6s.

5.00 Ascot (16 runners) Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) (formerly the Hampton Court Stakes)
Group 3, 1m2f , Good, 3yo, Win: £39739

0.5pt Midsummer Sun @ 16s Stan James, 14s Generally

Half brother to Midday, I'd have let him run if this mornings rain hadn't come as he does need 10f+, however I find it interesting that connections are happy to let him run.

First colours of the prince, he was backed and went off 6/4 on debut at Newmarket, but as usual Cecils need the run, he duly hacked up at Haydock next time out.

As said, interesting connections happy to run him when h'cap mark of 88, and also when they have Derby Trial winner running in Slumber. Out of Monsun, his breeding screams ability, and at the 16s on offer, he is worth chancing to see if he shows it today.

5.00 Ascot (16 runners) Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) (formerly the Hampton Court Stakes)
Group 3, 1m2f , Good, 3yo, Win: £39739

0.5pt Win Charles Camoin @ 20s Ladbrokes
0.5pt Win Purification @ 6s Generally

Similar to Sagramor, Charles Camoin had everything go wrong at Epsom, and still won. That is a sign of a horse to stay on the right side of, and at 20s he's huge price today.

All his runnings have suggested he is a stayer, and with Tullius doing the form of his Sandown run no harm, he's still ahead of the handicapper.

Purification has the look of an improver with only 3 runs to his name, but them 3 runs have abundance of promise laced in them. At Haydock he was beaten by Genius Beast, who has since won a Gr3 at Sandown before failing his Derby trial test. His win at Windsor this season has also been franked with Communicator winning a good race at York, Tiger Webb winning maiden since, and Canaveral winning twice once sent handicapping.

Of the market principles, he's the one that is likely to have more up his sleeve than others.

Subscribers Email 15/06/11

2011-07-04T11:57:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 15 June 2011
subject Ascot - Day 2 Analysis
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 15 Jun

2.30 Ascot (10 runners) Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
Group 3, 7f , Good, 3yo, Win: £39739

1pt Win Havane Smoker @ 9/2 Generally

Surprised not to see him clear favourite here as I feel the shown form is far superior to anything we've seen from other runners.

Going back to my review of the French Guineas, this is what I said:

Seen last season in the Criterium, himself and French Navy both faltered on the heavy ground, and I'm more than happy to over look that run. At Maison-Lafitte in the Prix Djebel he ran a good trial and want to go back to a quote after winning at Deauville:

"The colt has everything going for him - good acceleration,mentality and pedigree," said Rouget. "He did what he wanted today and is a flying machine."

Rouget ran this colt in the Prix Des Chenes, where in 2009 he ran Behkabad, so obviously held in high regard.

Soumillon rode him that day at Deauville and was suitably impressed, his booking and the quick ground is a plus for this son of Dubawi. At 9/2 he's overpriced.

3.05 Ascot (13 runners) Windsor Forest Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares)
Group 2, 1m , Good, 4yo+, Win: £56770

0.25pt Win Shamandar @ 40s Boyles 33s Generally

Course winner in a sales race in 2009, she wasn't totally disgraced on return when running 7th in the Victory Cup. Staying on well at the end, the step up in trip is no surprise, and in honesty this race isn't as competitive as previous renewals. Favourites currently are here on the back of listed win, or have Gr3 wins in Italy to their name.

As such, the 40s on a course winner is too big to ignore.

3.45 Ascot (7 runners) Prince of Waless Stakes (British Champions´ Series) (Group 1)
Group 1, 1m2f , Good, 4yo+, Win: £227080

0.5pt Win Rewilding @ 14s Generally

Travels well, and only wins after a break, and todays price at 14s is unfair.

He has been beaten twice in Group 1 races, however there is a HUGE mitigating factor. Both of his runs came within 30 days of his last run. Both times connections have stated they felt he ran flat.

His other runs have been visually impressive. His win in the Voltigeur and Cocked Hat Stakes were completed with minimum of fuss, and with that form likely to be seen today, then the Aussie and Planteur have something to fear.

4.25 Ascot (30 runners) Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Class 2, 1m , Good, 3yo+, Win: £62310

0.5pt EW Breakheart @ 40s Generally (1/4 5 places available)

A favourite of mine, yet never seems to have conditions to suit. 10f too far, 9f races infequent, 8f not ran to suit.

Well today he gets a 8f race that is likely to be ran to suit.

His Newmarket run was a very good one. Restless at the start, he just got done for pace when Green Destiny quickened to chase leader, and with the time being 4s below standard, then it's a sign that it wasn't exactly ran at a brisk pace.

Today we have Proponent, possibly drawn on the wrong side and half the price @ 20s, and we have Kay Gee Be who was behind him that day shorter in the betting and worse off at the weights. Franny has a good record with this horse 1275, that 7 being on soft ground which he'd have hated.

40s first 5 is too big.

5.35 Ascot (14 runners) Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) (Fillies)
Listed Race, 1m , Good, 3yo, Win: £28385

0.5pt Win Blessed Biata @ 16s Boyles 14s Generally

On a live one here, and no surprise given a few things:

Her breeding has her out as a true miler, half sister to Moon Dazzle (Consistent performer over 8-9f), Dupont (German 2000 Guineas Winner), Pachino (German 2000 Guineas Winner)

Deemed to be well thought of to be given a German 1000 Gunieas entry, she has got in lightly of a mark of 93, and once bypassing that option, you'd have to think this was the target for some time.

16s was too big, as has been proven to be the case.

Subscribers Email 14/06/11

2011-07-04T11:56:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 14 June 2011
subject The NHC - Royal Ascot Day 1
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hide details 14 Jun

St James Palace Stakes - W/o Frankel
Advised 1040 13/06/11 - 0.5pt Each Way Dream Ahead @ 9/2 (Bet365 & PaddyPower 1/4 Odds)

One of the things I've noticed since doing this service is how often the w/o fav market can offer value, and today is the same.

Dream Ahead is the only one that has a ? mark re him running, if pulled out people looking at 1/4 First 2 as no longer a dead 8 without Frankel, yet the thing is, Dream Ahead is the one that could really put it up to him.

Middle Park was a right off, 2 weeks after his good win in Morny, the ground was against him, the trainer wasn't 100% convinced he was right to run him, and the result showed that he did not produce his best given what we had seen earlier on that season. The weather has played into his hands, today will be the softest its been at Royal Ascot for sometime, and David Simcock must be elated that he has a chance to showcase what his star can do. Only question is will he handle a turn, and at 9/2 without Frankel, he's worth playing.

5.00 Ascot (20 runners) Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
Class 2, 2m4f , Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £31155

All Zigato here for me.

He has the right form in finishing behind Sunny Game @ Epsom, who will no doubt turn out to be a top drawer middle distance handicapper, and for me his win here was breathtaking.

2nd 3rd and 4th had the run of the race, they were prominent from 4f out, where as Zigato was 2nd last 3f out, and on the inside. By the 2 furlong post he was wide and closing, and the rest was history. He appreciated the step up in trip, and even though it wasn't a searching gallop, he won the hard way lto which is a big plus.

1pt Win Zigato @ 9/2 Generally

Subscribers Email 12/06/11

2011-07-04T11:53:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 12 June 2011
subject The NHC - 4.00 Doncaster (11 runners) totepool flexi betting Handicap Class 4, 1m , Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £4598
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hide details 12 Jun

I've been waiting 408 days for todays conditions, and finally we have them.

Caldercruix - 8f, quick ground, inside draw

Since his win first at Redcar I've had him marked down as a miler, and he's very dependent on quick ground. All runs since that day have not suit, whether that's due to ground or trip, and as such we've seen him drop down to a mark of 82 and a Class 4 race.

0.5pt Win Caldercruix @ 10s SkyBet 9s Generally

Subscribers Email 11/06/11

2011-07-04T11:53:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 11 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - Saturday 11th June 2011 **Additional bet**
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hide details 11 Jun

1.55 Sandown (12 runners) Bet On toteplacepot At totesport.com Handicap
Class 3, 1m1f , Good To Soft, 3yo, Win: £9347

0.5pt Win Tullius @ 10s VC Bet and Stan James

For me many will struggle on projected easier ground, and as such I feel the favs are beatable now they have both been backed.

We've seen through the week how his win at Sandown has been franked with Levitate showing once again a need for a trip, and Epsom winner Charles Camoin behind.

Breeding suggests ground won't be an issue, only time disappointed is when fluffed the start, otherwise I think he's very much a gelding on the up.

2.40 York (17 runners) ladbrokes.com Stakes (Handicap)
Class 2, 1m1f , Good, 3yo+, Win: £17485

0.5pt Win Vainglory @ 12s Bet365 / Boylesports / Skybet

Watch the Epsom race, and he was one that went straight into notebook.

This race won't take much winning, we have horses who struggle with the mile trip, and also many who would appreciate ease and a 10f trip. Multiple winner over trip, has a very good 5lb claimer on back with Laura Pike, at 12s he was overpriced.

York (Saturday) 14:10
1m 4f Class 3 Queen Mother s Cup (Lady Amateur Riders Handicap) (3yo plus)

1pt Win Defence Of Duress @ 6s Bet 365 & Totesport

First glance at the cards on Thursday and this stuck out like a sore thumb.

Beaten on debut when a selection, he was probably in need of the run that day, and last time out he was beaten by a good sort in Halifax, who is now bound for King George V Handicap by looks of things.

Connections won this in 2009, and a 3yr won it last year, and with all the allowances to boot, 6s was too big a price and so its proved as now 7/2 generally.

Subscribers Email 10/06/11

2011-07-04T11:52:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 10 June 2011
subject The NHC - Friday 10th June 2011
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hide details 10 Jun

4.35 Sandown (15 runners) Val And Ray Golden Handicap
Class 3, 1m2f , Good, 4yo+, Win: £7166

0.5pt Win Shavansky @ 14s Corals
0.5pt Win Shallow Bay @ 8s Corals

Shavansky has been unlucky in his races, and his turn is surely not too far away.

At Epsom he stayed on well from off the pace, a trait synonymous with him, and the same at York, yet these races were far better than what he faces today.

His run last time deserves plaudits due to the way the race panned out. Selection that day was Licence To Till due to the lack of pace in the offing, and so it proved, yet Huygens, a dubious stayer over 10f, was best suited by this slow pace, and as such Shavansky ran well to finish second.

A winner over Course & Distance, he also seems to revel in these Class 3 races:

Class 2+: 0 from 10
Class 3-: 3 from 10

Shallow Bay is worthy of consideration for numerous reasons.

Swinburn yard is firing at present, a 1-2 in maiden yesterday he's 4 from 26 over last 14 days with 38% placing.

Beaten by selection Warlu Way at Windsor, he didn't run a bad race against the handicap snip of Vita Nova at Newmarket, losing 2nd on line. With form at the course in the book, a 2nd to Conduct which has been franked, he's a player in today's race and at 8s he's reasonable price.

3.15 York (17 runners) Bond Tyres Stakes (Handicap)
Class 3, 2m½f , Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £11333

0.5pt Win Ocean Transit @ 10s Totesport, Boyles & Corals

Waiting on her to be sent over a trip, and easier ground, and today she gets it.

A revelation since having her wind worked on, we saw her clock up two good wins in quick succession then a great run in the Mares race at Cheltenham.

Her run on the flat this season was of note too, 2l behind Activate who seems destined to be campaigning in the better staying races this year, she was feeling the ground a little and also bumped about too. Beating the likes of Deauville Flyer, Ashbrittle and so forth was a good effort, and Adam Beschiaza is a plus in the saddle with hsi 3lb claim.

With rain likely to continue to fall at York, yard 4 from 14 last 14 days, and on the back of a hat trick with Transfer & Taurus Twins winning yesterday, 10s got me.

Subscribers Email 08/06/11

2011-07-04T11:51:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 8 June 2011
subject The NHC - 3.20 Haydock (9 runners) PHS Waterlogic Handicap Class 3, 1m4f , Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £7124
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hide details 8 Jun

Fav Kitty Wells was very much an eye catcher last time out after a HUGE drift in the market, and today she's priced up accordingly, however I fancy a speculative bet on one at a bigger price.

Tominator hasn't disappointed in handicap company (6178241236), and last time out he was slightly impeded by the barging match involving Abergavenny. Still, that form has not been let down with couple of placed efforts and wins coming from race, Nanton being the obvious.

At 18s with VC 16s Generally he's worth a small interest in a race where many maybe inconvenienced by the likelier easier ground.

0.25pt Win Tominator @ 18s VC (16s Gen)

Subscribers Email 04/06/11

2011-07-04T11:50:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 4 June 2011
subject The NHC - Derby Day 2011
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hide details 4 Jun

2.20 Doncaster (9 runners) williamhill.com Handicap

0.5pt Win Mubtadi @ 7s Generally

Two runs this season, and at both times he's been hindered by a huge face on wind, yet at both times hasn't disappointed.
As seen at Haydock, when he came out wide and in the clear, yet also he was switched too after being drawn on the right side.
Today this is an easier race, and whereas at Haydock he was tipped up by Pricewise and short in a better race.

3.10 Musselburgh (10 runners) totesport.com Edinburgh Cup (Handicap)

0.5pt Win Colour Vision @ 15/2 Bet365 Will Hill

Very green throughout his starts at 2, he twice blew his chance away at the stalls, yet his maiden win, and also his run at Chester was a very good run for one so immature mentally.
Beaten that day by Brown Panther who has since followed up in a good handicap at Haydock, that race has the look of a good pointer to decent 3yo handicaps through the season.

1.40 Epsom (10 runners) Investec Horses Help The Heroes Handicap

1pt Win Charles Camoin @ 10s Generally

Out of a Marcel Boussac placed dam, he's bred to be suited by this trip even though relatives have won at shorter trip.

Winner of a good maiden at Nottingham, his run last time out is a suggestion that he needs further. Done for toe at important stage of race he stayed on thoughout to the line and doesn't look like one to be inconvenienced by the track.

4.00 Epsom (13 runners) Investec Derby (Group 1)

0.5pt EW Vadamar @ 20s Bet365 @ 1/3 Odds

Beaten by Pour Moi last time out, there was a very good reason for defeat given he struck into himself, and as such is well worthy recognition based on pedigree and also his form shown.

Alain De Royer-Dupre is not one to aim a runner at a race without a valid reason, and has shown he relishes a stamina test. He was down in trip when beaten by Pour Moi, and this trip will be more favourable. At 20s and 1/3 odds is good value.

4.50 Epsom (15 runners) Investec Surefooted Handicap

0.5pt Win The Galloping Shoe @ 25s Generally

Competitive handicap yet I do feel that he has a good win in him. As shown yesterday, hold up horses have had the run of the race yesterday and he ran a solid race at York after hampered in the final furlong.

More exposed than most, but those shorted in the betting have various questions to answer with regards to trip, track and current form.

Subscribers Email 03/06/11

2011-07-04T11:49:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 3 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - 3rd June 2011 - Analysis to follow
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hide details 3 Jun

8.15 Doncaster (9 runners) aricabeauracing.com Fillies Handicap

1pt Win Opera Gal @ 4s Bet365, Will Hill, Betfred

13/2 was a rick last night and was hoping to see it being offered by more than just Bet365, yet lo and behold stuck with 4s.

This is arguably the easiest contest ran in for some while, mainly due to the fact she's back racing against her own sex, but also she's down in class too.

At Epsom, she was the only of the pacesetters to still be there or thereabouts at the end, as such that run can be rated better than finishing position. With her wins coming over 1m2.5f - 1m3f, and her runs over 1m4f suggesting that this is her optimum, it's not long before we will see her return to the winners enclosure.

6.45 Goodwood (8 runners) Racing UK Stakes (Handicap)

1pt Win Huff And Puff @ 10/3 Bet365, Will Hill

A possible class act lurking off 80 has to be a bet today.

Only raised 4lbs for a win where he'd have been inconvenienced by the firm ground, also by the 10f trip, he has a great deal of scope about him to suggest that he's well up to competing in the better middle distance handicaps come the seasons end i.e. November Handicap.

Gelded since his run at Newbury, where he finished behind Activate, now rated mid 90s, Arctic Cosmos (St Leger winner), in this race he was hampered, and he certainly wasn't knocked about when chance had gone.

As said, connections were no doubt expecting more than a 4lb rise as he did look the winner a long way from home without ever suggesting things were in his favour and today opposition looks weak even though they have been winning races.

3.25 Epsom (11 runners) Investec Investment Stakes (Handicap)

0.5pt Win Right Step @ 13/2 Paddy Power, Sky Bet

Doesn't put a foot one, and just finds one too good.

Many horses you'd think they have a kink, or a reason as to why they do not come from the race with a 1 to add to their collection of form figures, yet for the life of me I cannot understand why he has not. Raised again for a good second at York, he plainly bumped into one, and here I can't find a lurker so to speak.

Moore has a great SR here, and with form in the book at Goodwood, he has shown his ability to handle unique track.

0.5pt Win Tres Coronas @ 10s Generally

Unlucky at Chester imo, as he wasn't best positioned coming into the straight and got going just a little too late.

Yard is in great form, 4 winners from last 9 runners, and he's still unexposed over this trip.

Excuses on seasonal debut, he didn't stay over the trip at Musselburgh, and here today he's likely to build on his Chester run. Build on that, and he's not going to be far away.

Subscribers Email 02/06/11

2011-07-04T11:46:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 2 June 2011
subject Re: The NHC - Thursday 2nd June 2011
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hide details 2 Jun

8.45 Sandown (17 runners)
Bet On The Derby At totesport.com Handicap

0.5pt Win - Significant Move @ 9s Bet365 (8s Generally)

Improved on his pipe opener at Newbury to be a good 4th behind a very well handicapper Vita Nova @ Newmarket, he was finishing with a rattle.
Connections obviously think something of him, as he was backed in from a morning price of 25s to 11s on the day, and the way he stayed on suggested one thing only, a step up in trip.

This field is not as competitive as one he ran in at Newmarket. That day top OR was 89, at Newbury top was 85, today in this 0-80 he's running against a weaker field, with nowhere near as many possible improver.

Another plus is yard form, up until last Thursday the yard hadn't had a winner in 2011 on the flat, his last 5 runners have figures of 14421.

At 9s he's overpriced in the weakest handicap he's faced to date, and over a trip that is likely to bring about improvement.

Subscribers Email 28/05/11

2011-06-17T10:46:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 28 May 2011 subject
Re: The NHC - Saturday 28th May (Analysis to follow)
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hide details 28 May

Newm 28th May - 14:20 1m Hcap

0.5pt Win Dubai Queen @ 5s Betfred (9/2 Blue Square)

Luca Cumani has eyes on the Sandringham Handicap for this filly, and she has to go some to get into that race, and as such only an upward curve in handicaps will do.

Half sister to Dubawi, she's bred to be competing in races much greater in standard than the Sandringham, and as such she's well favoured off a mark of 83.

Improved for the gradual step up in trip last season, we've seen her win at Goodwood franked by both 2nd and 3rd, Trojan Nights & Agiaal. Throughout the race she hung to one side, so on a more conventional track could be better.

0.5pt Win Cloud Illusions @ 20s Bet 365 & Coral

Impressed by her attitude over course and distance, she is overpriced due unfashionable connections imo. Always looked on top here last time out, she was campaigned in a decent close season race to suggest the regard she was held in when 7th to Zoowra at Newbury.

Today the pace looks to be generous with front runner confirmed in stall next to her, she is likely to appreciate a trip 9f -10f in time, but the way the race may play out will suit her here.

Newm 28th May - 16:00 1m2f Hcap

0.5pt Licence To Till 16s Generally

Johnston & Fanning from the front are having success here time and time again, few weeks back with Yourgunnabelucky, and yesterday in the handicap, but today I can't get away from a well handicapped front runner in Licene To Till.

He scrambled home at Dundalk over 11f late last season, he's not done anything of note so far this season, yet in a truly run race he won't get further than 10f. At Dundalk he was able to dictate, and here over favoured trip the same again can be expected. Back to the mark of Ireland win, he is 6lbs higher than his win at Pontefract, and other than Noseda's horse, there's nothing which jumps out as potentially well handicapped.

Newm 28th May - 17:45 1m6f Hcap

0.5pt Win Hayzoom @ 11s Stan James & Totesport

Not an overly competitive handicap, and the 11s is a big price.

RP comments questioned his ability to go on after a good season debut, yet he ran in some good races last season and opens this season on the same mark.

His last two runs are the ones which suggest he is close to winning a race of this nature. At Haydock he was doing his best work late on which no doubt pointed connections over this trip, and at Newbury he may have been done by the slow pace more than the trip. Both were under Jimmy Fortune, and he's in the saddle today.

Hayd 28th May - 15:05 1m4f Listed

1pt Win Vita Nova @ 7/2 Betfred (3s Bet 365)

Works with the best fillies in the yard, and only winner of a maiden last season on debut for Cecil, this is a special filly.

Last time out the question was the trip, today she's over her optimum, and at 7/2 she was overpriced based on her runs.

The impressive thing about her run last time out was her ability to show pace over 10f, and she comprehensively beat a decent looking field. We had Lunar Victory 3rd in the Roseberry held, Significant Move, improve on debut run behind Modun suggesting a step up to 12f will suit him, and Shallow Bay, a consistent Walter Swinburn 80+ handicapper. She gave them weight, and ran away with the race when hitting the rising ground.

Subscribers Email 27/05/11

2011-06-17T10:43:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 27 May 2011
subject The NHC - 4.40 Newmarket (Rowley) (8 runners) Newmarket Business Day Handicap
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hide details 27 May

0.5pt Win Blue Destination 11/2 Stan James, Betfred & Skybet

Danadana is all the rage after being backed through the night and this morning, yet I was very taken by Blue Destinations win at Yarmouth.

Closely related to Blue Maiden, McBride made a point of buying this colt after seeing how Blue Maiden went at 3, and he's not been let down this season. Green on debut, he ran on once finding the rail in a good maiden at Newmarket, he then ran a good second to Our Dynasty, a well fancied John Quinn sort, but did look like a 3yo in the making, and he didn't disappoint at Yarmouth once getting the gap on the rail. A favourable time on the clock also, he's likely to prove in time to be a fair bit better than a 83 handicapper.

Subscribers Email 26/05/11

2011-06-17T10:38:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 26 May 2011
subject Fwd: The NHC - 8.45 Sandown (15 runners) Carluccios Alfresco Whitsun Cup (Handicap)
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hide details 26 May

Everyone wants to be on Julienas today, and you can see why, yet Zebrano at 22s is overpriced.

Late starter, maybe down to Emma Lavelle's capabilities on the level, yet the switch has brought about great improvement.

3 from 14 with his current trainer who was quick to learn he needed blinkers, he has also struck up a great rapport with James Doyle, riding all three of his wins while with Haynes.

Still relatively unexposed at this trip, it's a given he's tempremental as suggested by his hold up tactics, and also his sulk last time, yet that has not been evident before, and until it becomes a habit I'm happy to overlook it, something which the books haven't.

As said, he's unexposed over the trip, 4 runs on the turf 2431 (the win at Ffos Las was in a course record time), he's also shown his fondness for a right handed track with his form reading 33501515 on the All Weather, yet both wins coming at Kempton.

@ 22's he's well worthy of an interest.

0.5pt Win Zebrano @ 22s Bet365 & Totesport

Subscribers Email 22/05/11

2011-06-17T10:31:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 22 May 2011
subject Re: The NHC - Sunday 22nd May (Analysis to follow)
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hide details 22 May

Longchamp 13:30 - 0.5pt Win Don't Hurry Me @ 11/2 Totesport

The first Group winner for Hurricane Run, this filly ran away with the Prix Penelope and Jean-Claude Rouget is renowned for his fillies with Lily of The Valley and Stacelita and this has been earmarked as her oaks due to Galikova and Golden Lilac.

Described as given an easy time on seasonal debut by her jockey, she improved and showed her true ability when able to dictate and quicken from the front, and that is one positive which should be hightened today. As seen last weekend at Guineas weekend pace has a big impact on the make up of a race, and Don't Hurry Me is overpriced today.

Longchamp 14:45 - 0.5pt Win Rajsaman @ 12s Generally

Similar to last week and Canford Cliffs in that Goldikova is one I think is susceptible first time up, more so given that surely Breeders Cup 2011 is her ultimate target.

AS such, I find it hard to look away from Rajsaman here. Won a Guineas trial last season, he didn't improve through the season until sent to Hong Kong. 4th in the Hong Kong mile, and followed this up with runs in Dubai, the jockeys Davy Bonilla and Fallon would have no doubt suggested blinkers could be the oracle with this horse, and so it has proved with the improved running in taking the Prix Du Muguet.

Settling better, and quickening well at the business end he was in receipt of weight that day from Byword, yet Rajsaman had all angles covered and won comfortably.

With Dick Turpin having to overcome a horrid run at Newbury, at 12s I think he is a worthy rival to Goldikova, and a worthy price.

Cologne 16:15 - 1pt Win Gereon @ 5s Betfred

UK bookies and Exchanges have priced this race up on the fact that Botti's Excelebration ran Frankel to 4l in the Greenham, as a result the home charge has been overlooked.

Gereon is bred to be a classic winner:

Next Desert - Champion German 3yo (Derby winner 2002)
Golden Time - Foaled an Italian Oaks Winner

As such his win and run as 2yo would suggest he'll be suited by further in time, yet I can't get away from the way he quickened here:

http://youtu.be/mnbwb78EYlw

At 5s he's overpriced and until shown otherwise is a German colt I'll be following through the season.

Subscribers Email 21/05/11

2011-06-17T10:27:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 21 May 2011
subject Fwd: The NHC - Saturday 21st May 2011
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hide details 21 May

Haydock 14:00 1m 3f 200yrds Class 3 Betfred Both Teams Score Goals Galore! Handicap (3-yo)

0.5pt Win Qushchi @ 18s Coral 16s Generally

Highly regarded, as shown by her entry and running in the Nell Gwyn, however as expected, no surprise to see her fail to cope with the trip, and as such was promptly sent over 10f.

Typical Dettori ride prevented many from getting involved in that race, yet still she stayed on well enough to suggest the trip was more to her liking and she's now sent over 2f further.

Dam progressed into a very good mare, a dual listed winner and she was trained by William Jarvis too, so he knows the family well.

Haydock 14:30 1m 0f 30yrds Class 2 Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap (3-yo)

0.5pt Win Sagramor @ 7s Generally

This race is all pace pace, and as such had to look for a hold up sort and in Sagramor there's nothing better.

Competed in a very good handicap at Warwick, and Ektibaas is certainly a horse to follow up 1m2f. That day not many got into the race from a hold up position, but Sagramor was clear best off the rest. With the pace likely to be quick, he will settle better than his 2yo days and it's just a matter of luck in running.

Goodwood 15:20 1m 1f 192yrds Class 1 ITWCP Festival Stakes (Listed) (4yo plus)

1pt Win Al Zir @ 100/30 Generally

Throughout last season, connections and jockeys stated time and time again that he needed another winter on his back, and with that out the way, he has to be of interest in a glorified handicap.

We see him open his account this year in a listed race, where as last season he competed in the Guineas, Derby, a conditions race at Doncaster where beaten by a wonder filly in Myplacelater, and Group 2 winner and 3rd in World Cup run Wigmore Hall before ending season 4th in the Darley Stakes after blowing the start and hampered in running.

Settling better, and matured he's hard to get away from today.

Chester 16:35 1m 5f 89yrds Class 3 Crabbie s Wizard Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap (4yo plus)

1pt Win Bowlders Magic @ 9/2 Generally

Held up this season which has been an interesting tact, and as such it makes his run at York more the impressive.

At York he completed his race on the worst side of the track, far side, and deserves further credit for his eye catching run.

Has won at the track, he's won on or around the trip when beating Tactician at Sandown last season, where now he runs here off a 4lb higher mark, and overpriced today.

Subscribers Email 19/05/11

2011-06-17T10:25:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
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date 19 May 2011
subject Re: The NHC - 19th May 2011
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hide details 19 May

Haydock 16:00 - 0.5pt Win Marjury Daw @ 33s Stan James & Ladbrokes

A calculated gamble here.

Ground is likely to be easier than advertised, and thought at Chester she was given an easy time on seasonal debut, so expect her to come on for the run greatly.

Now only 1lb higher than when winning over a mile at Newcastle on soft ground, a return to prominent tactics out of her ideal stall 1 position could see her return to winning ways today.

With majority of field higher than last winning marks, not many have lbs up their sleeves, and at 33s she's worthy of interest today.

Salisbury 19:40 - 0.5pt Win Dynamic Drive @ 11s Will Hill

Loden rightly fav, but too short, and I'm still to believe we've seen the best of this Motivator gelding.

We've seen the Epsom race franked with Rock A Doodle Doo, and it's likely to continue to be franked through the season, yet once his chance was gone I though Kirby was easy on him, and as such no surprise to see him backed into favourtism at Chester.

However, he was held up, and also when making challenge into straight he was shuffled back and short of room, what is interesting is that even though Crowley is at Salisbury, he's been jocked off in favour of George Baker.

Yard could be in better form, yet I still expect him to return to the form that saw him win a couple of modest handicaps cosily last season.

Salisbury 20:15 - 0.5pt Win Apparel @ 9s Paddy Power

Not normally one to delve into a Class 6 handicap, yet I can't get away from a few things here.

Seen, and bred to be a middle distance filly (she's closely related to Monitor Closely, half-sister to Mount Nelson), so the fact she's stepped upto 1m4f on handicap debut is no huge surprise. What is though is her opening mark of 64 which gives her a huge chance in a race as weak as this.

Throw in Fallon stats - 54% at track (7-13)
Ed Dunlop & Fallon - 22% (11-51)

She's overpriced based on these facts, and her easy runs this season over inadequate tests.

Subscribers Email 15/05/11

2011-05-15T23:03:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly

date 15 May 2011 11:13
subject The NHC - Sunday 15th May 2011

A couple of interesting races today, and a few small plays here.

Ripon 15:40 1m Handicap

Last four runnings of this has seen an improving 4yo win this, and today it's Space War which for me is the one to look at closely.

Bought out of Gosden yard for 30k at Newmarket sales last season, he has improved run on run. Given a sighter at Musselburgh over an inadequate 7f, he improved on that form when running a good race in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, and feel he should readily reverse the form with Snow Bay that day. Not only due to the fact Snow Bay had the run of the race last time out, but also including the jockeys claim, Space War is 5lbs better off for 1 length. Sarrsar is interesting, yet we saw yesterday with Con Artist, a Godolphin horse dropping in trip is not a plus, and I can't see it here, nor with Saeed Bin Suroor yard too which is not firing as well as other yard.

0.5pt Win Space War @ 10s Bet 365 (9s Generally)

French 1000 Guineas 14:08 Longchamp

I expected Golden Lilac to be far shorter than the 3s on offer, and that just forces me into a bet here today.

Bred to me a mile - 1m2f horse, she has so much in her favour today.

A good draw.
10 of 10 winners had ran in the last 35 days.
9 winners of Prix De La Grotte have come into this race, and won 3 renewals.

Dam won Prix du Moulin de Longchamp after finishing 2nd in French 1000 Guineas, sire has already had one Guineas winner this season with Frankel, and at 3s she's a big price.

1pt Win Golden Lilac @ 3s Generally

French 2000 Guineas 15:25 Longchamp

Wootton Basset in car park and so short, then this leaves it open for a runner at a bigger price, and I'm following the breeding of Worthadd today with Havane Smoker.

Worthadd is out of Dubawi and a Rahy dam, Havane Smoker is too and his form is not far off ones half the price.

Seen last season in the Criterium, himself and French Navy both faltered on the heavy ground, and I'm more than happy to over look that run. At Maison-Lafitte in the Prix Djebel he ran a good trial and want to go back to a quote after winning at Deauville:

"The colt has everything going for him - good acceleration,mentality and pedigree," said Rouget. "He did what he wanted today and is a flying machine."

Rouget ran this colt in the Prix Des Chenes, where in 2009 he ran Behkabad, so obviously held in high regard.

0.5pt Win Havane Smoker @ 25s Boylesports (20s Generally)

Subscribers Email - 14/05/11

2011-05-15T23:02:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly

date 14 May 2011 11:25
subject The NHC - Saturday 14th May 2011

Competitive days racing, and not many bets out there, however couple have caught eye.

Newbury 14:00 1m 5f Listed 4yo

A race that will not take much winning in my opinion. Pollys Mark has a tendency to find one too good, and given that her best form is over 1m4f, then the cramped odds gives value to look elsewhere, and as such not looked further away than Simenon.

His two recent runs in handicap company off nigh on top weight is arguably the best form on offer. His run in the November Handicap has been franked time after time, and at Goodwood last time out he was beaten for fitness and a possible handicap snip in Invetissement.

Likely to be there or thereabouts from the off, he's travelled well throughout his races so he's not complicated sort and as such at 9s is value.

0.5pt WIn Simenon @ 9s Skybet (8s Generally)

Newbury 15:45 1m Lockinge

Canford is beatable first up, Dick Turpin value has long gone, Twice Over over a mile, no thanks and Cityscape not on this ground. As such further afield for selection, and to Italy with Worthadd.

He won the Italian Debry very comfortably considering the finishing distance. Mirco Demuro was always able to dictate, and looking through his form he likes to settle front rank and take it from there. Today, other than Red Jazz, he has the chance to take the lead, and stay there.

Thought to have been over the top by connections when facing Rio De La Plata, he's confirmed as an early season type.

0.5pt EW Worthadd @ 25s Generally (Get 1/4 1-2-3)

Subscribers Email - 13/05/11

2011-05-15T23:00:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 13 May 2011 12:44
subject Re: The NHC Friday 13th May 2011

York 4:45 1pt Win Man Of God @ 11/2 Generally

Full brother to the likes of Yesterday, All My Loving and Magical Mystery Tour, he's bound to relish this step up in trip, and off a mark of 74 he's very well treated.

We've seen Parlour Games come out of that maiden to win off a mark of 79, and Ryton Runner will be another who's worth following this season in these sort of races.

Hamilton 6:55 1pt Win Fox Hunt @ 15/2 Coral

Described as a quirky sort by connections, and I'm leaning towards the idea that he needs a turn to keep him interested. If that line of thought is correct, Newmarket wouldn't have suited, nor the fact that he got lit up when bumping with rival after start.
Also the hold up horses fared best in that race, whether this down to the strong wind, or how the race panned out, credit to Fox Hunt for finishing the best of those up with the pace from off.

Subscribers Email -12/05/11

2011-05-15T22:56:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 11 May 2011 21:36
subject Re: The NHC - Thursday 12th May 2011
mailed-by googlemail.com

4:45 York 2m 2f Handicap - 0.5pt EW Boston Blue @ 40s Bet365 & Will Hill

Just the one bet tomorrow, but a solid bet, and I was thinking I'd be happy to take 20s on him.

Flopped on debut last season, and same again this year, but the fact connections once again reach for the visor makes me think his run at Musselburgh was a sighter. As a 4yo, and with Dale Swift in the saddle, he's getting 9lbs worth of allowances today.

However, it is his form throughout last season which suggests that he's been overlooked due to that one blip at Musselburgh.

We'll discuss his form at Goodwood, and he will no doubt be labelled as a specialist, but his form on 28th July is a class above what anything this field can post. 4 lengths of improving Verdant, 2 behind Life And Soul now rated 92, and also Mount Athos, who ran a very promising run at Chester on the back of winning effort at Dundalk. Behind him this day he had the likes of Berling, Jutland and Bowdlers Magic who were competing in quality handicaps through the season.

Away from Goodwood, his form can be described as just as good.

Not far behind Montparnasse at Nottingham, he finished a similar distance behind him when meeting again at Haydock, yet in that race we had Zigato just in front of him who won a good staying race at Ascot during week, just behind him was Calatrava Cape, a filly I rate highly, and Hayzoom, who finished 4th today over 1m4f trip so the form is there for all to see that he was a very competitive 80 rated horse running against more unexposed 3yo.

Still under same ownership, rather than connections selling him on after being deemed not having any pounds left for improvement, it wouldn't surprise me if this has been a target for some time given that new trainer is based in North Yorkshire.

Subscribers Email - 11/05/11

2011-05-11T16:56:00.004+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 11 May 2011 09:14

York 13:30 1m 2f Class 2 Handicap 4yo+

0.75pt Win Pekan Star @ 7s Generally

Spit of what I was saying at Chester really (See 05/05/11 mail). Better race today, however the course and the ground have negated any slight doubts I had previously. Shame that Tom Segal has snaffled all the 8s.

0.25pt Win Right Step @ 25s Generally

Based on form of some runs last season, he is grossly overpriced.

Beaten by the likes of Wigmore Hall, Beachfire, Lost In The Moment and Akhmatova and the end of the season, he has shown that he's well capable in fields as competitve as this. Negative is as such his mark has risen throughout. Still, with the added bonus of Harry Bentley in the saddle, who rode one of the best races all Dubai meet on Navajo Chief, he's one 5lb claimer I want on my side always.

We've seen that Newbury form behind Lost In the Moment franked in Dubai by himself, but the Kempton form shouldn't be overlooked as he was surrounded by some AW specialists in that run - Baylini, Greylami, Mafeking and Nice Style to name just a few.

York 15:35 1m 4f Class 4 Handicap 4yo+

0.5pt EW The Galloping Shoe @ 25s Bet 365 & Betfred

A stonking bet in my opinion.

Ignore his run lto, small field, slowish pace was never going to suit, nor the quicker ground, and as such he comes he bigger price due to that.

Revelled in easier conditions behin Hot Prospect last season, he didn't seem to enjoy his time over obstacles, and as such brought back to the flat, and his run at Doncaster was a cracker.

Crowley never once had him in the correct part of the race, and as such the bird had flown by time he found his rhythm, yet that bird was well handicapped Bonfire Knight, who runs in the first today, and the others haven't let the form down one bit:

Snow Dancer bt a well regarded Tregoning filly nto @ Pontefract
Abergavenny was a solid 80+ horse on the flat, and has since won twice over hurdles
Hydrant has finished a good 2nd to Frontline Phantom since

The trip could bring about further improvement here, the bigger field and quicker pace will also bring about a swift return to solid efforts as seen last season.

York 16:45 1m 2f Class 1m 2f Class 4 Handicap 3yo

0.5pt Win Defence Of Duress @ 10s Generally

Sud Pacifique is all the rage here, yet at 3s is too short, and I can't get away from this well bred colt.

Dam a half sister to Suave Dancer, herself a good winner over 1m-12f, he's well thought of at the yard to warrant an entry in the Irish Derby.

The Redcar maiden is turning out to be a decent little heat with Abjer winning a Group 3 and Badeel winning a handicap off 87 last week at Nottingham.

The danger for me is from the 3rd horse in that Nottingham maiden, Discovery Bay. That day he hung throughout, yet he seemed to have matured when running a decent race at Newbury last time out. Still, with Defence Of Duress 1lb better off, he's one I'd take at the prices.

Subscribers Email - 07/05/11

2011-05-11T16:55:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 7 May 2011 10:39

4:35 Ascot

Only the one race being played today, and that is one of the most competitive older horse handicap we've seen so far this season.

Rock A Doodle Doo is being backed on the premise of being an unlucky loser lto, and even though he did have a rough passage the value in his price has long gone, as such it plays to follow the Newbury form which has already seen Warlu Way win and I'm following it here with Udabaa and Cash Point.

Udabaa had some good form in 2010, notably when finishing behind Vulcanite, obviously something was wrong from then as not seen for remainder of season. Still that Leicester form has been franked numerous of times, his half brother Priors Lodge also improved for age, while rated in the 80s, he's still ahead of the handicapper.

Another for me is Cashpoint. He was wide from the gate, and in the turns I thought he hung right, going back through his races he's not shown that trait before, and maybe coincidence they decide a right handed track this time, but I feel the race could have brought him on greatly. Buick didn't get serious once headed last time out and the step up in trip is a plus.

Both here are overpriced.

0.75pt Win Udabaa @ 6s Stan James
0.25pt Win Cashpoint @ 22s Stan James/Boylesports

Subscribers Email - 05/05/11

2011-05-06T10:30:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 5 May 2011 11:07

3:50 Goodwood - 1pt Win Beatrice Aurore @ 6s Bet365

This one is fairly straightforward really.

Like the form of Doncaster race, has been franked by both winner and the 2nd.
Yard ran Times Up on same day and he has improved considerably for the run, as did Warlu Way, she was free in the race, looked destined to fight the finish out at the end, she weakened in the final furlong without been given a serious question.
Drop back in trip should help if she is still relatively fresh as likely to go off a quicker pace today, and the fact she's against her own sex today is also another little plus.

5:10 Chester - 0.75pt Win Pekan Star @ 5s Corals & Will Hill 0.25pt Win Tres Coronas @ 16s Paddy Power

I can't see a reason why Pekan Star is not favourite here.

Bred to be classier than a handicapper, half brother to French Derby winner, and all relatives have attained a higher RPR than he has currently, and his maiden win at Nottingham is working out very well. Ground and course maybe slight negs, but still, I think everything in the formbook suggests he should be vying for favouritism with Nibani at the very least.

I always take note of any horse that Jarvis, now Varian, keeps in training.

Saver on Tres Coronas here @ 16s. Last night a few £ was knocking about on Betfair around this price, and when Satwa Moon was pulled, I expected him to come into around 10s generally.

Back to his favoured trip, he has ran better in both his defeats this season than the bare figures suggest. A few extra drops of rain would have helped his chances greatly, but even so he's too big a price here.

Subscribers Email - 04/05/11

2011-05-06T10:29:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 4 May 2011 11:04

Minimal stakes today, purely on the basis that I too, like Tom Segal, felt Mount Athos had a good chance here, yet the more I look at it, the more I feel the horse has bolted and the time to back him was at Dundalk, rather than today at 9s.

For me I'm siding with a couple of outsiders.

0.25pt Win Blue Bajan @ 33s Victor Chandler & Stan James
0.25pt Win Mystery Star @ 50s Victor Chandler & Stan James

Blue Bajan for a number of reasons;

i) The switch to David O'Meara, predominantly for personal reasons by connections, is a plus in my book
ii) Blue Bajan has not competed in handicap company since Apr 2007, where he won off a mark of 100 in a 17 runner handicap at Epsom
iii) has shown his fondness for quick ground, but also he has course form, including a head 2nd in the Huxley Stakes.

Admittedly this is a big ask after such a break, yet at 33s he's worth a shot.

Mystery Star hits form at this time of year, 5 runs in May with form figures of 33153 and with him seemingly improving for the step up in trip winning and placing twice when running over a trip further than 1m4f, throw in his form at unique tracks such as Epsom and Goodwood, and also his 2nd to Munsef off 94 here in Aug 09, he too is overpriced at 50s.

This weeks Races In Focus will follow today.

Subscribers Email - 02/05/11

2011-05-06T10:28:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 2 May 2011 09:37

This had a look of a no bet or day, or playing two hands in the one race, 3:25 @ Windsor.

One selection was Shabak Hom. I find it greatly interesting that the yard bought him back in the sales in Feb and is no under new ownership within the yard. Unexposed and on a reasonable mark, he's one I think could pick up a lowly contest relatively easily.

However, this leaves me with Warlu Way.

Keen throughout, and not given a hard time in a quality 4yo+ h'cap at Newmarket, this is a class drop when you consider 75% of the field that day were rated 80+.

Excuses can be made for a number of his runs, faltered over 12f at Goodwood, and swiftly brought back to 10, he wouldn't have been suited one bit by the slow pace in the 5 runner field, and won despite of this. With Dunlop horses either coming on for their seasonal debut (ie Times Up yesterday), or performing to their true capabilities now it's the time to look at his stayers closely.

0.5pt Win Warlu Way @ 12s SkyBet / PaddyPower

Subscribers Email - 30/04/11

2011-05-06T10:27:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly dgkelly84@googlemail.com
to Daniel Kelly
date 30 April 2011 11:15

14:00 Qipco Sponsors British Champions Series Suffolk Handicap - 1m 1f

A nice big field to start the day off, but I can't get away from the form of Green Destiny's handicap win last season.

Agony & Ecstasy came winner of this years Snowdrop Stakes
Fastnet Storm winner, and very consistent sort, over the trip
Zebrano continued his form onto the AW

Also the way he won his race was very impressive, held up on inside, he moved out from there to end up being widest of all, before passing the field to win going away.

Related to 1m2f winners, he's likely to improve for the step up in trip gradually through the season, and is one to stay on the right side of.

1pt Win Green Destiny @ 6s Bet365 & BoyleSports

Subscribers Email - The NHC 29/01/11

2011-01-29T16:45:00.000Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly

date 29 January 2011 08:50
subject The NHC - Saturday 29th January 2011
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 08:50 (7 hours ago)

As mentioned last week I was looking forward to seeing The Giant Bolster at Haydock, and once again I can't get away from here today. Unfashionable connections result him here being priced up at 10/1 yet the form is there in the book for a good run. Far superior than the majority of these over hurdles, he jumped some of his fences at Worcerster in taking fashion, and he was far from out of it when falling over course and distance last time out
Rated 140 over hurdles, he's off the same mark today, and when looking back at Worcester form it wasn't a bad field he demolished:
Bob 'N' You Rated 137 over hurdles
Ballydub 125
Slash And Burn 137

0.5pt Win The Giant Bolster @ 10s Ladbrokes

The NHC - Subscribers Email 22/01/11

2011-01-22T15:21:00.002Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 22 January 2011 09:40
subject The NHC - Saturday 22nd January
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 09:40 (5 hours ago)

Money continues to come for one horse today, and that's Notus De La Tour. The yard and jockey have farmed this race in recent years, yet at a general 3s chance now has to be taken on.

Sire Collognes missed the cut in the Lanzarote, and happy to be on his side again today:

Sire Collonges (AQPS - Dom Alco) made a winning start to his career in the €44,000 Prix Alcide Hurdle (4yo-3,500m). Guy Cherel’s representative jumped perfectly and kicked clear with ease in the straight. Hillbilly (Kapgarde) had to be content with second place five lengths behind the winner despite a strong finish. “He confirmed my opinion of him”, explained Guy Cherel. “He is a very serious horse and doesn’t show a lot in the mornings. He jumped really well and I can find nothing wrong with his performance. He also schools faultlessly aver fences in the mornings and that will be his speciality in the future. I have not yet decided what will be the next step for him.”

0.5pt Win Sire Collonges @ 17/2 Coral (BOG) - (Get Best Odds Guaranteed if elsewhere)

In the same race, I can't get away from Tiger O'Toole at a huge price.

Over time he's shown that he loves the better ground, and also a strong pace, as such it was interesting to see him run such an encouraging race at Sandown behind Mille Chief. In the Summer Hurdle behind Australia Day he was knocked about by other horses at vital moments and that run can be ignored, also it's interesting that Evan Williams thought he was good enough to take his chance in Galway, yet the long season was no doubt begining to take it's toll.

Been kept over hurdles as trainer thinks he's well treated, he's strengthened up and the pace of this race, as well as the drying ground will suit him greatly. 40s in places is big.

0.5pt Win Tiger O'Toole @ 40s Bet365

Racing Review - 8th January 2011

2011-01-08T18:39:00.004Z

Chepstow - Soft (Heavy in places) Going Stick N/A

12:35 3m, Class 4, Novice Chase
Money and change in tactics brought about an improvement in Silver Kate today. Better jumping performance than when seen at Bangor, she battled on well once challenged by Voramar Two.
Both these horses were rated 140+ over smaller obstacles, yet would struggle in the better novice chases at present.
Voramar Two coped well with the ground considering it was the easiest he has run on to daye. Would like to see what OR he gets as over hurdles didn't fire till second half of season.
Tarateeno had no chance after losing position on 11th and hope that he's not used as a marker off 120 when handicapper reviews.

1:10 2m½f, Class 1, Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle
Marsh Warbler travelled like the best horse throughout this race and no surprise to see him now at head of market for Triumph. Still disappointed with all Juveniles seen so far this season, a division I'm staying well away from.

1:45 3m5½f, Class 1, Welsh National Handicap Chase
Synchronised continues to show his fondness for testing conditions, and even off 11-6 here did it well. This is the best I've seen him travel which is worrying for any rivals in future should he got his favoured conditions. Can't have him for Aintree, so maybe the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham may end up being a target before another tilt here and then Aintree in 2012.
Giles Cross course form reads 12F12 now, so it's a case of see you next year with him. Midlands National could be his next target again as last year he spoilt his chance by being keen.
Watamu Bay never figured, best form on RPR has been RH tracks.
Dance Island didn't stay and Silver By Nature didn't seem to travel as well as he usually does - Stable form?

2:20 2m3½f, Class 2, Handicap Chase
Chance Du Roy travelled well here and is becoming a bit of a specialist at this trip over fences, 1131. Franked form of Only Vintage run at Folkestone, where The Rainbow Hunter and Regal Heights have placed with Roi De Rose winning earlier this week.
Prince De Beauchene didn't jump with any fluency in the main on the back straight, and that put paid to his chance.

3:25 3m, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle
Marked this up as a very solid 3m handicap hurdle beforehand, and Universal Soldier turned it into a procession.
Formerly with Nicky Henderson, had some good form at Ffos Las last season ending in a decent 3rd to Hopeful Start, who hasn't set the world alight just yet over fences, and Adams Island. May not see the best of this one till he sees a fene next season.
Miss Overdrive continues to run well, but hurdling lets her down in closing stages.

Sandown - C Soft (Heavy in places) H Heavy C 6.5 / H 5.9

1:00 2m4f, Class 1, Listed Hurdle
Banjaxed Girl had own way up front and did enough as she usually does. Too many involved for lead when running at Cheltenham, and can readily ignore that run. Not good enough against the better mares though.
Alasi settled better this time, hence improvement on seasonal debut. Handicap mark going to take a hit and likely to find it difficult as such.
Synthe Davis will love a return to sharp track and better ground.

2:05 3m½f, Class 2, Handicap Chase
Nothing got into this in all honesty, and Nicto De Beauchene had this sealed far away from home.
Decent run from Quattrocento considering ground conditions, and Youngstown had no chance getting the trip here.

2:40 2m½f, Class 1, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
As expected Toubab found out in this better race. Won a shocker of a race at Haydock, and nowhere near a 144 rated animal.
Minella Class no surprise handled conditions given p2p form and improved on Newbury run. Will need to be stepped up in trip as unlikely to have pace for any decent 2m novices.
Megastar ran well considering conditions, and will appreciate a return to spring ground, as such not one to give up on just yet.

3:15 2m, Class 2, Handicap Chase
Cornas was weighted to run well based on his good 2nd to Planet Of Sound off 147 and 4th in Grand Annual off 150. Found to be lame in this years Haldon Cup he ran respectably enough when 3l behind Fiendish Flame at Cheltenham. Always there and jumped well he handled conditions best of all.
Tchico Polos will appreciate the return back up in trip and ran well here off 11-11.
Oh Crick wasn't as fluent as the front 2 over the railway fences and as such that cost him a clear 2nd imo. Back now on a winnable mark, it's a matter of when, not if, he wins again.
French Opera missed an early season engagement due to injury, so hopefully this was just a blow out for him.

3:45 2m½f, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle
Impressive from Mille Chief, but only one of a trio who had form on forecasted ground. See how the handicapper reacts now before thinking of Newbury.
Sophies Trophy settled alot better and should find easier opportunities than this.
Zazamix well backed, disappointed, and previously has been best seen fresh and with ease in ground.
Softly softly Tiger O'Toole, lets see where you are aimed this spring.

Wincanton - Soft (Good to Soft in places) C 6.8 / H 6.8

12:45 2m6f, Class 4, Novice Hurdle
Good win for Buck Mulligan, a national of some sort maybe his target this season and time favourable when compared to the finale.

2:25 2m5f, Class 3, Novice Chase
The Minack beat fairly useful yardsticks here, worry is when he runs on better ground.
Bouggler had to give weight away here and ran well considering The Minack had conditions in favour. 2m4/2m5 is his trip, and as such maybe the Jewson could be under consideration for this one unless given a competitive mark (placed off 142 in hcap hurdle).

3:30 2m5f, Class 2, Handicap Chase
Fistral Beach made it a double for Nicholls here. Was sent off 100/30 for RP Chase earlier this year, and a handicap of that statue has to be where he goes next. Beat a course specialist in I'm A Legend, and as mentioned earlier the form of Only Vintage Folkestone form was franked again with Regal Heights finishing a decent enough 3rd with cheekpieces working once again.

Subscribers Email - The NHC 21st November 2010

2010-11-21T15:14:00.001Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 21 November 2010 10:50
subject The NHC - Sunday 21st November 2010
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 10:50 (4 hours ago)

Aintree 1:10

A number you could make a good case for, yet Quartz De Thaix looks the pick of these on form.

In his first attempts at handicap hurdles he found the competition too hot, beaten well in both the EBF Final at Sandown and the Conditional Hurdle race at Cheltenham he started last season over fences. Never fluent, and never giving them enough respect he was unable to break his duck in that sphere, and following that he reverted back to hurdles.

Cheltenham he was 19.5 lengths ahead of Keki Buku, and I was very impressed by the way he stayed up the hill that day once pressure was applied. Today Keki Buku is 12lbs better off, but still doesn't suggest that the 7/2 on offer is value.
At Perth, he was taken on for the lead and he sat just off the pace. Once again finding well for pressure, he was eased near the finish.

The Veneita Williams yard is beginning to find a bit of form, the 12s on offer is big when you consider there's no ground doubts as he beat Comhla Ri Coig full brother Reindeer Dippin (giving him 13lbs) on heavy ground at Bangor.

0.5pt Win Quartz De Thaix @ 12s Stan James (11s & 10s Generally)

Subscribers Email - The NHC Saturday 20th November 2010

2010-11-21T15:12:00.002Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 20 November 2010 10:36
subject The NHC - Saturday 20th November 2010
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 20 Nov (1 day ago)

Not seen a day over jumps which has been populated with so many short priced favourites for some time, and as such it does temper leave me with only a few races to play in today. The going reports at Haydock also throws in a conundrum of it's own, Good To Soft as per CoC, yet generally Soft ground if looking at the Going Stick ratings.

2:50 Haydock

Grand Crus is very much worthy favourite, and will be difficult to beat yet at 15/8 in places he's short in what is a very competitive race. Whereas last week at Cheltenham there was only a few you could make a solid case for, today you can make a number, yet for me there's none stronger at the prices than Barafundle.

2nd to the highly progressive Picture This at Aintree, he showed his true colours following a poor run at Cheltenham and comes here only 3lbs higher.

His from going into his two runs last spring were of the highest order also
Winner of his third start in a bumper he beat the well regarded Black Jack Blues, and as stated his likeness for a trip from an early age just made it that more impressive. He followed this up with a hurdles debut win over 2m7f at Hereford on soft ground, and a further win later in season at Warwick on good ground. Sandwiched between these two runs was a poor 3rd to Truckers Hall, yet no surprise that was when dropped back in trip to 2m3f.
Still unexposed in handicap company, he's bound to run well for a yard in startling form, 2 winners in last 7 starts, both handicap hurdlers off marks of 117 and 137, does this 130 rated have it in him to continue that, I think he does.

0.5pt ew Barafundle @ 22s Skybet (20s Generally)

Email To Subscribers - November 6th 2010

2010-11-08T10:45:00.001Z

from Daniel Kelly
date 6 November 2010 08:37
subject The NHC - Saturday 6th November
mailed-by googlemail.com

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Winc 6th Nov - 14:10 2m Hcap Hrd

You can't get a more inform yard than Hobbs yard at present, and as such I can't look further than Nearby.

The likely quick pace of this race is going to suit him greatly, as even though winning the last two comfortably he supposedly doesn't do much in front. Once again he's another who has gone well for todays pilot Chris Davies, and if excusing his run at Aintree (3rd run in short space of time) his form behind Sure Josie Sure is getting better by the week as that has been entered for the Greatwood.

1pt Win Nearby @ 13/2 Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Saturday 16th October 2010

2010-10-17T11:16:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly

date 16 October 2010
subject The NHC - Saturday 16th October 2010
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There's days where you have to sit back and enjoy the action, and today is one of them on the flat.

Frankel v Dream Ahead v Saamid in the Dewhurst.

Then you have the quality that is the Champions Stakes, with Fuisse who has questions about trip, Vision D'Etat who is 8 from 10 at the trip yet has to prove back to full fitness and then you have last years winner Twice Over mixed in with the now more mature Poets Voice.

Yet todays betting opportunities come from Cheltenham.

Chelt 16th Oct - 14:40 2m4f Hcap Chs

A very open looking hcap chase, yet I'm drawn to one of last seasons selections in Edgbriar.
At the prices I can't have either of the front three, You're The Top form LH over obstacles so far reads 3F3P, whereas RH 311111P. Classic Swain and Passato have been running in weaker summer races and are artificially short due to their form figures rather than form itself, and that brings me to todays selections.

0.75pt Win Edgbriar @ 16s Generally

His form over fences reads 512318.
His 8th was over 3 miles at Aintree, and his 5th was on debut and on a RH track which he doesn't act on, as such focusing on his other runs show he's more than capable of winning off this mark.
Doncaster he beat Cockney Trucker, and even though he wasn't a serious chaser last year he was finishing behind good horses.
But it's his run at Cheltenham which is screaming a good run. Hey Big Spender was competing in the better races after the winter and Midnight Chase franked the form in no uncertain terms yesterday off a mark 10lbs higher than when 3rd here.
Mix in the fact that Sam Jones is replaced by Dominic Elsworth, that is a plus in itself.

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Ascot 26th Sep - 15:00 1m4f HcapAscot 26th Sep - 15:00 1m4f Hcap

2010-09-26T16:59:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
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subject The NHC - Ascot 26th Sep - 15:00 1m4f Hcap
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It is only a matter of times before Life And Soul gets his head in front, and today looks the day.

As shown when backed at York he was keen throughout and looking back maybe the nature of the course would have went against him that day with the long straight, as such it was a huge surprise to see him dropped back in trip at Newmarket. Once again, keen throughout, he had no chance in winning that race, and thankfully they've stepped him back up in trip here.

The plus is the course, a short 2.5f run in should help him settle more than previously, also the pace of the race looks strong today too with the likes of Bay Willow, Chiberta King and Prompter being in the race. Today he should have everything in his favour and as such at 6/1 rates value.

1pt Win Life And Soul @ 6s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC Haydock 14:35

2010-09-26T16:57:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly

subject The NHC - Haydock 14:35
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Over at Haydock, Herculean looks the one to beat.

Out of a Group 1 dam and this seasins in sire for stayers, Sakhee,
this 80000gns purchase seems destined for bigger and better things.

Winner of a hcap Ffos Las in relative ease he accounted for seasonal
handicapperd, today he races of 7lb higher mark and at 9/2 with
Betfred is a reasonable price.

1pt Win Herculean @ 9/2 Betfred

Email To Subscribers - The NHC - Newb 18th Sep - 15:05 1m2f Hcap

2010-09-20T09:17:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly

date 18 September 2010
subject The NHC - Newb 18th Sep - 15:05 1m2f Hcap
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When reviewing the Sunderlands handicap, Forte Dei Marmi travelled the
best throughout, that was down to the quicker pace on offer. That was
the reason behind his defeats at York rather than the course itself.
Today he is guaranteed that pace with the likes of Aattash and
Almiqdaad drawn middle to low he should be looking to give Cumani his
4th win out of the last 7.
One that has been overlooked in the market is Tepmokea. He was unlucky
behind The Fonz at York however his form has a very solid look about
it this season. He defeated Bonfire Knight at Doncaster and finished
behind the improving mare Brushing earlier this season.

0.75 Win Forte Dei Marmi 6s Generally
0.25 Win Tepmokea 20s Generally

The NHC - Races In Focus Review - 16:45 Chester 10/09/10

2010-09-15T23:26:00.001+01:00

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The NHC - Races In Focus Review - 14:40 Doncaster 10/09/10

2010-09-15T23:25:00.000+01:00

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The NHC - Races In Focus Review - 14:05 Doncaster 10/09/10

2010-09-15T23:13:00.002+01:00

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The NHC - Races In Focus Review - 15:45 Doncaster 09/09/10

2010-09-15T22:32:00.005+01:00

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The NHC - Races In Focus Review - 14:35 Doncaster 09/09/10

2010-09-15T22:31:00.003+01:00

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The NHC - Races In Focus 13/09/10 - 17/09/10

2010-09-13T08:19:00.000+01:00

Please find below details Races In Focus for the period of 13/09/10 - 17/09/10:

4:20 Beverley WED 15 SEP 2010 GEORGE KILBURN MEMORIAL HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo 0-90)
4:05 Sandown WED 15 SEP 2010 FORTUNE STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)
3:55 Yarmouth WED 15 SEP 2010 E B F ATTHERACES.COM JOHN MUSKER FILLIES´ STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)
4:30 Yarmouth WED 15 SEP 2010 RACING WELFARE HANDICAP (FOR THE GOLDEN JUBILEE TROPHY) (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90)
4:20 Ayr THU 16 SEP 2010 WILLIAMHILL.COM/BONUS25 HANDICAP (FOR THE KILKERRAN CUP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
4:10 Yarmouth THU 16 SEP 2010 SEAJACKS - SHE´S GOT LEGS HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
3:10 Newbury FRI 17 SEP 2010 DUBAI DUTY FREE ARC TRIAL (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Audio reviews for last weeks Races In Focus will be posted throughout the week.

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Chester 15:35 Freebets.co.uk Stand Cup (listed) £37000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f 66y, Class 1

2010-09-12T11:21:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly

date 11 September 2010
subject The NHC - Chester 15:35 Freebets.co.uk Stand Cup (listed) £37000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f 66y, Class 1
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A return to a sharp track should see the return to form of Harris Tweed.

He cut his own throat in the Grerat Voltiger, and as such I'm happy to overlook that form as based on everything else in the form book, he seems destined to outrun his current 7/2 price.

His two wins this season have came at Ripon and Musselburgh, both sharp tracks. I don't need to go on about the strength of the Edinburgh Cup win, but he did follow up this with a good run in Gr3 company in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket.

The pace is likely to brisk, but Harris Tweed doesn't need to lead, and as such should be able to suit prominent to midfield in what will be a 1m4f race run at a searching gallop.

1pt Win Harris Tweed @ 7/2 Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Chester 16:45 Try Betdaq For An Exchange Handicap (3yo, Class 3, 1m 2f 75y)

2010-09-10T16:58:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 10 September 2010
subject The NHC - Chester 16:45 Try Betdaq For An Exchange Handicap (3yo, Class 3, 1m 2f 75y)
mailed-by googlemail.com

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This should not really come as a surprise.

Never looked happy at Goodwood, and happy to readily ignore a poor run at a tricky course, as such today he's been found a very easy opportunity for him to return to form.

Back with Eddie Ahern in the plate, I expect a far more prominent racing style from him today, and he looks to be a class above these on form.

Note preview below for Rigidity's run at Goodwood.

1pt Win Rigidity @ 10/3 Generally

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Daniel Kelly
Date: 28 July 2010 20:08
Subject: The NHC - Glorious Goodwood - Thursday 29th July 2010
To: Daniel Kelly

Part I

Good 28th Jul - 14:10 2m5f Hcap

This is Rigidity's for the taking. I go back to his run at Doncaster, and I earmarked him as one to follow before his run for two reasons. He was one of a number Cecil entries in the Timeform Millions race at HQ which was won by Coordinated Cut, but he also held a Dante entry, hardly surprising being a half brother to Dragon Dancer, but the fact that he was given a handicap mark of 77 forced the hands of connections to go the handicapping route.

So there he was, backed like defeat was out of the question at Doncaster on seasonal debut, and he goes down 1.25l to Dandino, and he was off a mark of 77 also at the time, had the benefit of a seasonal run beforehand when winning his maiden. Ah well, not to worry, maybe he'd recoup his losses at York next time out. No, this time he was beaten by a horse who we know all too well, Arlequin when he was racing off a mark of 79. Arlequin needs a quick pace and a galloping track to be at his best, maybe also a turn, and thus was another 2nd for Rigidity.

Dandino has to be now rated in 110+ after a 2nd in the Gordon Stakes.
Arlequin is now rated 92 after 3rd in a competitve handicap at HQ.

Back in 3rd at York was Contract Caterer, another horse who appreciates a turn and a good gallop, at the time CC was off 85, he finished 3rd today off a mark of 91.

Another reason why I felt that Rigidity was a handicapper to follow before the season was underway, was that when Cecil talked and worked Timepiece, she worked with Rigidity and Bullet Train. Timepiece is rated 111 and Bullet Train 108. Rigidity gets in here off a mark of 89.

As for the three-year-old colts, he added: "I have some nice ones but I'm not sure yet whether they'll be up to Classic class.

"Bullet Train has done nothing wrong and neither has Rigidity so we'll see."

1pt Win Rigidity @ 11s Ladbrokes (10s Generally)

--
Dan Kelly
http://thenhc.blogspot.com

The NHC - Races In Focus - 16:20 Doncaster Review

2010-09-09T21:39:00.004+01:00

First attempt at audio review. Note that going forward Race In Focus reviews will be free for all.

Sunday (Mon - Fri Racing) & Tuesday (Sat & Sun Racing) Evenings I will update blog with The NHC - Races In Focus. Reviews will be posted through the week, and hopefully build a decent portfolio.

Listen!

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Leic 24th Aug - 18:20 1m3f183yd Hcap

2010-08-24T19:44:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
subject The NHC - Leic 24th Aug - 18:20 1m3f183yd Hcap
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They continue to drop like flies in this race due to the Soft (Heavy in places ground), but with the dead 8 left, looking at the outsider of the lot, All Annalena to spring a surprise.

Senate is rightly fav due to his commendable 3rd to Jet Away, but the lack of pace could be his undoing as it was at Goodwood where he found himself front rank, and disappointed as a result. Ella will love the conditions yet she has a tendency to find one too good, but you can understand the reason why money has come for her, but for me, it's the other filly that deserves a greater look.

She's a dual placed listed runner in Germany, one being over 10f on Sft ground, and was competing in Group races as a 3yo last season. Following a disappointing run on the All Weather at Deauvile she was brought into the Lucy Wadham yard, and her rating has plummeted.

First time up this season in May, she ran in a listed race over 8f at Goodwood. Outpaced quickly, she wasn't knocked about, and it was a sighter more than anything else. Following a break, she came back into another listed race over 12f at Newmarket on Good to Firm ground, keen early, she was the first off the bridle, and virtually pulled up. Considering her best efforts were on easier ground, you can forgive her for this run. Next time out is the interesting run though, behind the mightily impressive Spanish Duke, she kept tabs with the front 3 throughout, before getting outpaced, before staying on again under pressure to finish 4th. The early pace setters in this race weakened quickly, and her and the Godolphin runner were the only two to be up there and stay there, as such I feel she has been very leniently treated to be dropped a further 5lbs for that run.

Since running in the UK, her rating has dropped 17lbs, she has been competing in listed events and Class 2 races, before she comes here, 3rd run after a break, off a mark of 82.

If she doesn't get competitive today off this mark, I feel she never will.

0.5pt EW - All Annalena @ 33s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Newb 14th Aug - 15:05 7f Grp2

2010-08-14T17:26:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly

date 14 August 2010
subject The NHC - Newb 14th Aug - 15:05 7f Grp2
mailed-by googlemail.com

Following the withdrawal of Balthazaar's Gift, I feel that this race becomes far easier to solve.

If Shakespearean came into this race on the back of his Epsom win, we'd have been looking at a 3/1 joint favourite, yet due to two runs since he's now 6s generally.

Following his win at Epsom, Dettori was quoted as saying he'd like a tilt at the St James' with him, but even that or the Jersey would have came too soon for him, and so it proved with a tame run in 6th. He followed this up with a strange run behind Fuisse, now Fuisse has the potential to cause an upset on Sunday in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, and even though that Shakespearean didn't get a look in this day, this was more down to a waiting ride by Maxime Guyon more than a reflection of the horses true ability.

Today, back over a straight 7 he has to be of great interest in what is a weak Group 2.

One of the other things going for him is his ability to handle softened ground. He won on debut at Haydock over 6f on GS and ran out of steam over 8f in the Racing Post Trophy when finishing 6th to St Nicholas Abbey also on GS. He is 2 form 3 on advertised good ground and you'd think that a return to front running tactics will see him return to winning ways for a yard who has had a 30% SR over last 2 weeks and has a 24% SR at the course as a whole.

1pt Win - Shakespearean @ 6s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Glorious Goodwood 29th July 2010

2010-07-29T20:26:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 28 July 2010 21:28
subject The NHC - Glorious Goodwood - Thursday 29th July 2010
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 21:28 (22 hours ago)

Good 29th Jul - 15:25 2m Grp2

Goodwood Form - 31311114071

It's hard to think a 7yo could be improving, yet the step up to 2m has brought about further improvement.

Group 3 Sagaro Stakes
Stayed on well on the outside to win quite cosily in the end from a decent enough field.

Group 2 Henry II Stakes
Had the beating of Akmal based on Sagaro run, yet got going all too late, and finished a never nearer 4th.

Esher Stakes Listed
Giving weight away due to his Gr3 penalty, this is arguably the best staying form on offer this season.

6th Aajel - Was 2nd in the Sagaro Stakes, and returned to some sort of form after poor run behind Tactic, when finishing 2nd to Bergo at Ascot.

5th Manighar - 3rd to Ask last season in Group 1 at Longchamp, was expected to improve for the step up in trip and the better ground.

4th Samuel - Placed in 2008 Yorkshire Cup and behind Distinction in this race in 2008, performed well on seasonal debut.

3rd Opinion Poll - Improving stayer for Jarvis and came into the race a dual listed winner.

1st King Of Wands - Beat Tactic handsomely over 12f at Ripon when in receipt of 4lbs, yet flopped when encounting soft ground at Goodwood.

With the Knight yard in such good form, it bodes well for a good run, and I've never heard him so bullish about his own charge:

Trainer William Knight believes everything is in place for another big show.

"I'm confident he'll run another big race. We are back at Goodwood where he's run his best races and this has been the plan for a while, so I hope he'll run a big race," said Knight.

"He absolutely loves it there. Obviously he is going four furlongs further than he ever has there before, but he's shown that he stays the trip this season.

"He got beaten at Sandown the last day but he was giving weight away to the winner and he was a shade unlucky as he couldn't get out when he really wanted to.

"If he can run to that level of form - it was a very good time that day - I think he's got an outstanding chance."

I agree with him, in that a reproduction of that effort will see him go very close today.

0.5pt EW Illustrious Blue 10s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Ponte 25th Jul - 15:50 1m Listed

2010-07-26T01:14:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 25 July 2010 11:10
subject The NHC - Ponte 25th Jul - 15:50 1m Listed
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 11:10 (14 hours ago)
A former selection, yet there's everything that suggests that Mabait is well upto taking the spoils here.

As mentioned then, a turning track is seemingly required, 4 from 6, and as such I think you can excuse his run at HQ, where he never looked himself. Yet it is his run in the Diomed which suggests he is well worthy of a shorter price than his current 7s quote.

He was a 0.75 3rd to Bushman who placed yesterday in the Skybet Stakes beaten by a stablemate of Mabaait in Summit Surge, that day he had Harrison George behind, yet he is shorter in the betting today.

With question marks against Zacinto and Rio De La Plata, Mabait at 7s is a very solid proposition considering he's still yet to have his ideal conditions when out of handicap company.

1pt Win - Mabait @ 7s (Skybet, Boylesports, Blue Square)

The NHC - Upcoming This July

2010-06-30T10:12:00.001+01:00

A packed month to look forward to here at The NHC:

W/e 4th July 2010
Old Newton Cup & Coral Eclipse

Tuesday 6th July 2010
Part 1 (of 3) NH Horses To Follow 2010/2011

W/e 11th July 2010
Newmarket July Meeting
John Smiths Cup @ York

W/e 18th July 2010
Irish Oaks

W/e 25th July 2010
King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Meeting

W/e 1st Aug 2010
Glorious Goodwood

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Royal Ascot 17th Jun - 17:35 1m4f Hcap

2010-06-18T09:38:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 17 June 2010 00:03
subject The NHC - Royal Ascot 17th Jun - 17:35 1m4f Hcap
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 17 Jun

Now this one should not come as a surprise, as I think Dandino is still ahead of the handicapper here off his revised mark of 91.

As per his win at Epsom, it's his ability to settle and travel in a race which screams class, and on form, this looks an easier race than he won at Epsom.

London Stripe will have his backers, due to him being typical 3yo Stoute handicapper, but for the likes of Berling to be shorter in the betting on the back of a Class 5 and Class 4 wins, he has some improving to do to hold a candle to the form of Dandino's runs. Note this is what I said with regards to Epsom:

Dandino was an impressive winner over Rigidity at Doncaster, and there's every reason to think that there is still improvement in him for he has only been raised 5lbs for that win. As noted, Rigidity has since gone on and ran a sound race behind Arlequin at Doncaster, however it was the way Dandino travelled through the race at Doncaster which suggested he could be better than just a handicapper in time.

Over time the form of that race should produce winners. Ingleby Spirit was unsuited by the way the race was run at Newbury next time out and Hidden Glory didn't appreciate the drop back to 8f last time out.

As said, the pace will not be overly quick today with only Constant Contact and Fine Sight likely to be up there from the off, however as shown at Doncaster and Redcar Dandino has the ability to sit just off the pace and quicken.

Hidden Glory has not let the form down one bit with his run at Goodwood, and today the race looks to be made for him once again. This time London Stripe is making the market, with Rashaad and a couple of Johnston horses likely to make the pace.

He will be better than a handicapper in time, and I note connections are flirting with the idea of a St Leger bid, maybe this could be just a day out for the syndicate, but either way, they have a serious horse on their hands here in the form of Dandino.

1pt Win Dandino @ 7s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - York 12th Jun - 15:50 1m2f Hcap

2010-06-14T08:37:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 12 June 2010
subject The NHC - York 12th Jun - 15:50 1m2f Hcap
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 12 Jun

The unexposed types in this race are heading the market today, and as such it leaves a solid handicapper at a very backable price, Bonfire Knight.

Bonfire Knight didn't stay the 12f trip at Musselburgh last time out when Harris Tweed broke the course record, however it is his run in the London Gold Cup which suggests a race of this nature is very much in him.

That day Green Moon was able to dictate, and when striding on in the home straight, he quickened it from the front and got first run on those behind him. Yet when you look at what was behind him the form of that race is very solid:

Monterosso - Won Nmk Hcap off 94, also beat Eleanora Duse earlier in the season
Private Story - Second to the improving Awsaal at Haydock
Verdant - 2nd to the improving Dandino at Epsom
Green Moon - Won at Nmk, now Ascot bound

The pace is likely to be a bit more even than it was at Newbury, which will suit.

0.5pt EW Bonfire Knight - 12s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Epsm 5th Jun - 13:40 1m2f Hcap

2010-06-05T21:52:00.002+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 5 June 2010
subject The NHC - Epsm 5th Jun - 13:40 1m2f Hcap
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hide details
Similar to the London Gold Cup at Newbury, Verdant is making the market here and as stated back then I think he was flattered by his win at Sandown. Once again the pace isn't exactly going to be quick, as such he has to be overlooked at current 5/2.

Dandino was an impressive winner over Rigidity at Doncaster, and there's every reason to think that there is still improvement in him for he has only been raised 5lbs for that win. As noted, Rigidity has since gone on and ran a sound race behind Arlequin at Doncaster, however it was the way Dandino travelled through the race at Doncaster which suggested he could be better than just a handicapper in time.

Over time the form of that race should produce winners. Ingleby Spirit was unsuited by the way the race was run at Newbury next time out and Hidden Glory didn't appreciate the drop back to 8f last time out.

As said, the pace will not be overly quick today with only Constant Contact and Fine Sight likely to be up there from the off, however as shown at Doncaster and Redcar Dandino has the ability to sit just off the pace and quicken.

1pt Win Dandino @ 7s (Bet365 & Ladbrokes)

The NHC - Upcoming This June

2010-05-31T10:39:00.001+01:00

Flat season begins to hot up in earnest this June.

4th - 5th June Epsom Classics
Daily Previews & Reviews of all the action at Epsom Downs

15th - 19th June Royal Ascot
Daily Previews & Reviews of all the action at Ascot.

26th June Newcastle
Northumberland Plate - Expect an Ante Post Preview during the coming weeks as well a day of the race preview.

Late June/Early July
Part 1 of National Hunt Horses To Follow - Focusing on Second Season Hurdlers and Seasoned Hurdlers.
Part 2 of National Hunt Horses To Follow - Novice Hurdlers 2011

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Sand 27th May - 19:45 1m2f Gr3

2010-05-27T22:56:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 27 May 2010
subject The NHC - Sand 27th May - 19:45 1m2f Gr3
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details

A very competitive renewal of the Brigadier Gerard Stakes.

Normally at Sandown it is always about the draw, yet todays race has to be about the pace. Based on the last 3 runs, this is their running style:

Glass Harmonium - Hold Up
Sri Putra - Lead/Presser
Steele Tango - Presser
Peligroso - Lead
Prince Siegfried - Lead
Stotsfold - Hold Up
Tazeez - Lead/Presser
Lady Jane Digby - Lead/Presser

Due to this you have to be drawn to a hold up horse, and for me Stotsfold is the one of the two that makes most appeal.

The softening ground at Chester and the tactically run race would have far from suited his style of racing, and as such that can be overlooked, however the market haven't overlooked this and at 11s in a place, 9s is a fair bet.

Form over trip 7 Wins 5 Places 21 Runs and on G/F Ground is 4 Wins 3 Places 13 Runs.

His 3rd in a far classier renewal last year is the best form on offer, and even though he is the exposed horse in the race, he demands plenty of respect here.

0.5pt EW Stotsfold @ 11s Totesport (9s Generally)

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Hayd 22nd May - 14:30 1m Hcap

2010-05-22T16:14:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 22 May 2010
subject The NHC - Hayd 22nd May - 14:30 1m Hcap
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details

As always a competitive renewal of the Silver Bowl, however Balducci looks hard to avoid here, and rightly so.

Related to the once rated 107 Don't Dili Dali, following two runs on the all weather, one in 09, and his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield, he was pitched into a decent looking maiden at HQ. Rating the race around the consistent Count Of Anjou (OR 76) he ran a good race from the front and was always in control, strangely enough Harvest Dancer, who finished 2nd that day beaten 0.5l has been rated 84, yet Balducci is also coming into this rated 84 even though he has a supremely solid 2nd to a good horse in Oasis Dancer.

Oasis Dancer won convincingly at Newmarket, and Balducci was clear 2nd best, however behind that day was Hypnotized who has since ran a good race to finish second to Soul Station this week, to suggest that the form is more than just solid. Oasis Dancer is a Group winner in waiting, and when you consider Oasis Dancer gave weight away to Meezan on debut at Newbury, he obviously stripped fitter for the run, and he will not be disgraced in the Irish 2000Gns today.

For me, Balducci is still 6-9lbs ahead of the handicapper, and he should have been raised more than just the 3lbs he has been for his handicap debut run. As such the 5s on offer in places is an attractive price.

1pt Win Balducci @ 5s (Skybet, Betfred, Paddy Power & Ladbrokes) 9/2 Elsewhere

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Good 19th May - 15:10 1m1f Hcap

2010-05-19T15:17:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 19 May 2010
subject The NHC - Good 19th May - 15:10 1m1f Hcap
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details

As usual with Goodwood, the draw will play it's part today, and for a prominent runner to be drawn high it is a big plus, and today the plus is awarded to Soul Station.

Drawn in stall 1 at Sandown when running behind Verdant, he ran a good race even though he was trapped widest of all, all the way round, and for him to finish a good 4th is a credit to the horse more than anything as the race was far from ran to suit.

Being a son of Starcraft, it's not too much a surprise that he's been dropped back a furlong here today. Also the watered ground at Sandown may not have suited him ideally, as such the quicker ground today is a further plus. The 6s on offer generally is an attractive price.

1pt Win Soul Station @ 6s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Good 19th May - 14:35 1m2f Listed

2010-05-19T14:46:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 19 May 2010
subject The NHC - Good 19th May - 14:35 1m2f Listed
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details

The limelight has been stolen here by the impressive maiden winner Thaahira and the French import Wedding March, however there's one that has been overlooked totally by the market, Snow Fairy.

She had a progressive season last season. She started off keen on debut at Newbury, then switched in the final furlong where she stayed on strongly to press for 2nd. Following her maiden win she was able to finish a staying on 2nd off top weight in a nursery over an inadequate 6f before she was stepped up in class.

Finishing a staying on 4th to Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera, she was campaigned again in Gr3 company at Goodwood, where once again she was going all too late after traveling best to 3 out to suggest that she was outpaced before staying on.
As such it was a surprise to see her last start of 2009 was also over the 7f trip, where she flopped when favourite at Newbury. Pat Smullen stated that the filly didn't handle the soft ground, not such a surprise when you consider her breeding, out of Intikhab.

The 14s (16s with Blue Sq) on offer is too big for a filly which comes here rated the best on OR and arguably the best form in the race.

0.5pt EW Snow Fairy @ 14s Generally (16s Blue Sq)

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Ascot 8th May - 14:20 1m4f Listed

2010-05-08T14:31:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 8 May 2010
subject The NHC - Ascot 8th May - 14:20 1m4f Listed
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details
You can't get a stable any hotter than Gosdens at the moment, but where is the form in the book for Duncan to be 5/6?

Duncan excels in strongly run races, as shown when winning this last year, however when he's not given a strong gallop, he struggles, and today there isn't enough pace from the other runners to suggest the race will be ran to suit. As such, I think the 3s on Barshiba is well worth an interest.

Barshiba is a consistent sort. She's improving with age as per David Elsworth:

She doesn't pull as hard as she does and as she's got older she settling much better. She is probably at the peak of her powers and it was a stroke of good fortune that Jeff Smith kept her in training. We thought it would be fun to try her over a mile and a half and it certainly has been.

This is before we take into consideration the races she was competing in last season.

Over 1m4f her form figures read: 5114 (Inc. Group 2 win in the Lancashire Oaks). Her 4th was behind Dar Re Mi in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Where as Duncan competed in the following: H'cap - Listed - Gr1 - Gr2 - Gr3
Barshiba contested the following: Gr3 - Gr3 - Gr2 - Gr2 - Listed - Gr1 - G1 - Gr1.

Note that Barshiba also comes here unpenalised for that Group 2 win.

As stated with no confirmed front runner in the field, the pace won't be there for Duncan to excel.
Barshiba can make all and as David Elsworth stated she's improved and settled far better.

1pt Win - Barshiba @ 3s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Chest 6th May - 14:15 1m2f Grp3

2010-05-06T18:16:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 6 May 2010
subject The NHC - Chest 6th May - 14:15 1m2f Grp3
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details

This is far from a vintage renewal of the Huxley Stakes, and even though there is some unexposed types in the field, it shouldn't take much winning.

One that takes the eye here is Debussy. His running style, trainer form and jockey form suggest that the 1 stall is ideal for him.

Debussy's form over 10f reads 11160

His 6th was a disappointing run at Deauville in a Group 2 in Aug09. Following this run, Jimmy Fortune stated that he'd be better suited to a left handed track.
His 10th was a never dangerous 10th to Red Desire at Meydan. From an outside draw he was never able to sit in his usual prominent position. Also this run was not on turf.

So his revised form over 10f on left handed turf tracks read 111.

Another reason behind these disappointing runs is his fondness for a sharp track.

His form on a sharp track reads 138

Win over Midday at Epsom reads very well based on what she did through the season, culminating in her Breeders Cup Win.
Over 12f he was 3rd in the Vase and it was the run of a non stayer, same again in the Derby.
The sharp track should ensure that he doesn't go off like a scalded cat as he did in Meydan or at Ascot when running too free and finishing behind the current favourite South Easter.

Unpenalised for his Group 2 win last season in France, he comes here with a far better chance than his current 14/1 quote depicts.

0.5pt ew - Debussy @ 14s (Ladbrokes & Bet365)

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Ascot 28th Apr - 15:55 2m Grp3

2010-04-29T10:13:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 28 April 2010
subject The NHC - Ascot 28th Apr - 15:55 2m Grp3
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 28 Apr (1 day ago)

I don't think there's a horse as good as Patkai in this field, but there's one that does take the eye at the current 10/1 in Aajel.

The pace in the race is likely to be generous with Yes Mr President, Akmal, Electrolyser, Oasis Knight and Aajel likely to be up there from the off, and there's no reason not to think he'll still be there at the finish.

Aajel is obviously well regarded by connections. He was absent since 2007 aftering getting leg, was also gelded, yet they kept him going and brought him back for a 2m hcap at Yarmouth. Making all he won in convincing fashion off a mark of 90 which promoted him to Cesarewitch favouritism. Following this run he pulled a muscle resulting in him missing the trial race, and he got loose in the run up to the Cesrarewitch which resulted in him being scratched.

He clearly goes well after a break, and even though he's coming here on the back of a handicap win, there's still everything to suggest he is improving considering he's only had 6 career starts. Appreciate that Hills probably had the option between the two, however it wouldn't be the first time he picked the wrong horse for Hamdan Al Maktoum.

At the current 10s, he's more than a fair price, and expect him to be there or thereabouts in the staying races throughout the summer on quickish ground.

0.5pt ew - Aajel @ 10s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Punch 22nd Apr - 17:30 3m Grd1 Hrd

2010-04-22T20:17:00.000+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 22 April 2010
subject The NHC - Punch 22nd Apr - 17:30 3m Grd1 Hrd
mailed-by googlemail.com

The Stayers revolves around one mare, Quevega. This is a Grade 1 only in name when you consider what the field consists of:

Grade 1 Winners
Aitmatov (2007), Berties Dream (Novice), Oscar Dan Dan

Grade 2 Winners
Bensalem, Powerstation, Quevega

Grade 3 Winners
Ninetieth Minute, Mourad

Others are either placed in Graded company, or winners of Listed races etc, as such the 7/2 on offer for Quevega is stand out for me today.

She has blossomed since her 4yo days to a true 2m4f horse at Cheltenham, and there's every reason to think that the trip today should be within her compass.

Going back to her 4yo days, there's form there that suggested she needed the as early as then. Accounting for modest company in two easy novice hurdles, she was found out over 2 miles on quicker ground here in the Champion 4yo race when caught for speed when they quickened up. She has tried this trip once since, and that was in the Champion last season, when a staying on 3length 3rd to Solwhit on easier ground. The pace was not quick that day, but she showed she has the class to compete at Grade 1 level over a trip well short of her best, lets not forget she had the likes of Sizing Europe and Muirhead behind her that day.

Away from 2m races, her form over 2m4f is impressive, reading 31191

You can ignore the 9, as that was in Auteuil when she injured herself and ran no race, and her placed effort was again in Auteuil in a Grade 1 where she was staying on 3rd once again.

Her wins at Cheltenham have been nothing but impressive, yes you can crab the form a little, but it's the manner of her victories which are striking. She's never once looked like stopping up the hill, and for me she ran a career best when winning this years David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. She's always been aimed for Cheltenham, Punchestown then Auteuil throughout her career, and still only 6, there's every reason to suggest that she is still improving.

She doesn't have to improve to take this race, the question is the trip, and at 7/2 generally, it's well worth the price to find out.

1pt Win - Quevega 7/2 Generally (4/1 Sporting Bet)

The NHC - Upcoming This Summer

2010-04-15T11:35:00.001+01:00

Just a brief note to what to expect for the coming flat season.

As per over the jumps, I'll be focusing on Class 2 or better races, mainly over 7f+. Starting next week we will begin to look at the better races on the flat, so coming up we have the following:

Sandown 23/04 - Classic Trial (Group 3)
Sandown 24/04 - Mile St (Group 2)
Sandown 24/04 - Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3)
Ascot 28/04 - Sagaro Stakes (Group 3)
Plus some competitive handicaps.

This will take us upto the Guineas Meet at Newmarket.

Weekly reviews of the Flat will focus on the better races, and also any interesting maiden winners/runners that week.

Obviously with the Summer Jumping scene now a more competitive one, I'll also be review the better races over the jumps, and be counting down to the Galway Festival over in Ireland. Speaking of Ireland, we also have the Punchestown Festival to look forward to next week.

Around the back end of June, I shall also be producing a list of 30 Hurdlers & Chasers to follow for the Jumps Season 2010/2011, as no doubt the Open meet will come around soon enough, and we'll be looking to build a decent Antepost portfolio for Cheltenham 2011.

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Aintree 8th April 2010

2010-04-08T21:41:00.003+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 8 April 2010 10:05
subject The NHC - Aintree 8th April 2010
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 10:05 (11 hours ago)
Aint 8th Apr - 16:20 2m Hcap Chs

One of two bets today for me, and that is Chaninbar here.

Chaninbar is not the most straightforward of horses, yet when he gets his act together, he is a very decent horse.
Since returning from an enforced lay off he has won twice, once over hurdles off 119 and once of fences off 125, he comes here off a mark of 135, yet it was the manner of his win at Newbury and the subsequent form of that race to suggest that he is more than able to compete off this revised mark.

It's Crucial - Won a Class 3 Hcap Chase next time out beating Kew Jumper who was in 3rd at Newbury
Chance Du Roy - Dual winner since running off 120, now rated 130 and improving.

Appreciated the "p" doesn't look overly attractive, yet connections hit him with a 1st time visor, yet that was over hurdles, and his form over fences over 2m once applied with headgear has been solid: F21.

1pt Win - Chaninbar @ 28/1 Totesport

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Hayd 3rd Apr - 15:30 2m4f Hcap Chs

2010-04-03T20:26:00.000+01:00

rom Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 2 April 2010 20:45
subject The NHC - Hayd 3rd Apr - 15:30 2m4f Hcap Chs
mailed-by googlemail.com
hide details 20:45 (23 hours ago)
The Daffodil Vase has attracted a very competitive field for its inaugural running.

Market:

Salut Flo 11/4, Fistral Beach 4, Stormin Exit 17/2, Lease Lend 9, Montgermont 11, Prince De Beauchene 12, Saphir Des Bois 12, Will Be Done 14, Heathcote 16, Mister McGoldrick 20

Salut Flo comes here on the back of a convincing win at Doncaster, and as such heads the market, yet with ground issues not been put to bed by his trainer, it's hard to look at him as a proposition at 11/4. I'd also question what he actually beat at Doncaster, as both Soulard and Sagalyrique don't have the profile of progressive chasers and he was in receipt of weight from all of runners bar one. Tomorrow he faces horses who have ran in graded chases, and decent handicaps, not coming here on the back of 0-125 handicap chases win.

Fistral Beach still only has 1 career win over obstacles, yet he will be fancied in this field. His form behind the likes of Hey Big Spender reads well, yet his win over Heathcote was a staying on victory, and no surprise he was stepped up in trip for the Racing Post Chase following that win. Not getting further than the second hardly instils confidence, and he has hit and blundered a few fences in his short time over fences.

There's questions to answer by a few of these, Lease Lend has to prove himself in this company yet is on the upgrade. For some reason Stormin Exit is third best in the market, but I can't see it, other than carrying a low weight. Montgermont beat a race full of exposed animals last time out, and as such I think there's still jury out on his well being and his ability to handle 2m4f. Will Be Done has good form with Sa Suffit, who I would have given a great chance too in this field, yet off top weight in this field, he has a stiff task.

This brings me round to Prince De Beauchene.

A good winner over hurdles at Ayr late last season, he followed this up with a game run behind Huka Lodge, before going into the Peter Marsh as 7/2fav. He travelled supremely well before blundering his chance 4 from home, yet that hasn't proved such a bad thing as he comes here off a 4lb lower mark. Away from them lines of form is his ability and seeming preference for 2m4f. He's raced over this trip twice in his career, winning both, a chase and a hurdle race. Over further he has finished 3227.
With pace likely to be not an issue, this should suit his prominent running style. Yard form is decent enough, if not spectacular over previous weeks, and at 12s generally he deserves a closer look.

1pt Win Prince De Beauchene @ 12s Generally (Bet 365 & Betfred B.O.G)

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Ludl 1st Apr 16:00 2m4f Hcap Chs

2010-04-01T16:49:00.001+01:00

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 1 April 2010
subject The NHC - Ludl 1st Apr 16:00 2m4f Hcap Chs
mailed-by googlemail.com

The competitive 4.00 Handicap Chase at Ludlow takes the eye today and Chance Du Roy is taken to come out on top.

His win at Chepstow last time out was on better ground, but it was his tendency to jump right, and also his horlicks of the 4th last which suggested a right handed course with easier fences would favour him, and this is what he's got today. He was sent off 9/4f when finishing 4th to Chaninbar and It's Crucial yet even for his mistakes at the beginning of the race, he was still there until blundering his chance 4 from home. Hobbs horses have improved their jumping in recent weeks, Fairoak Lad and Copper Bleu to name a few, and his jumping was improved when winning at Chepstow.
He's got form on soft ground over hurdles, and he comes out best of these on hurdle ratings when winning at Exeter on Soft ground over 2m1f off 115 and placed effort of 120 at Haydock.

As mentioned in the Racing Reviews, The Snail has been placed well by connections, but this is by far his toughest race to date, and he meets them on a mark 38lbs higher than his chase win here in December. This would also be his 3rd race in a 2 weeks, and whereas previously he has won when put out under a penalty, he's never encounted 3 races in quick succession and is another reason I'm looking to oppose him today.

Herons Well was another to receive a favourable mention in Racing Reviews, yet even though this step up in trip will suit, it's hard to imagine the sharp track likely suiting this galloper. He's beaten some decent enough sorts over fences, and beat them with something to spare, yet a 3m galloping task would be more up his street than 2m4f on a sharp track like Ludlow.

Chance Du Roy should be able to run his race here and the pace of the race will suit with Soixante, Herons Well, The Snail and Tyup Pompey all enjoy to be prominent/leading.

1pt Win - Chance Du Roy - 7/2 Generally (Best Odds Guaranteed available)

The NHC - Week Ahead

2010-03-29T20:52:00.000+01:00

Just a quick look at what's upcoming this week @ The NHC:

Tuesday: Racing Reviews - Jumps & Flat
Wednesday: Early look at the Daffodil Vase @ Haydock
Thursday: Closer look at the Aintree Festival with connections now stating targets.
Friday: Look at the Irish Grand National (Fairyhouse 05/04/10)

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 2m5f

2010-03-17T16:09:00.001Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 16 March 2010 20:53
subject Fwd: The NHC - Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 2m5f
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 20:53 (19 hours ago)

After looking into this race once again following decs, I find it hard to make a case that is not stronger than Spirit Rivers as per below.

His form with Get Me Out Of Here at Newbury just gets stronger and stronger when you consider how he was ridden. He's posted one of the best speed figures in the feild , and that was here in the winter over 2m.

As such, am happy with the 14s still on offer, and the 14s we've been able to get Ante Post.

Ground shouldn't be an issue based on his French Form where he improved for better conditions and on breeding, with the likes of Lingo and Butlers Cabin out of Poliglote (Sire of Spirit River) both appreciating quicker ground too.

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 10 March 2010 08:57
subject The NHC - Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 2m5f
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 10 Mar (7 days ago)

Trends for this race:

10 / 10 Highest RPR rating in one of last 3 runs
10 / 10 Won Classs 3+ Race
10 / 10 Won over 2m2f
9 / 10 Ran at least twice this season
9 / 10 Aged 5 - 7

Market

Beshabar (10) , Noble Prince (12) , Quantitativeeasing (12) , Lake Legend (14) , Spirit River (14) , Wishfull Thinking (14) , James De Vassy (16) , Mamlook (16) , Mourad (16) , Sir Harry Ormesher (16) , Smoking Aces (16) , Ainama (20) , Cest Ca (20) , Dorset Square (20) , Qozak (20) , Silk Affair (20) , Sway (20) , Andytown (25) , Boulavogue (25) , Chicago Grey (25) - Others 25 or more

I will look at this in finer details when the final decs are known, but there's one I wish to take the price of now and that's Spirit River.

As you are no doubt aware, the Get Me Out of Here formline is one I rate very highly, and one that has produced winners.

However it was his weight carrying performance here at Cheltenham which was the performance to suggest that he was going to be a very good hurdler before tackling fences. He gave weight aware all round in that race considering just a 4yo, and he beat Clova Island who has won since, and Spirit River was running a good race until leaving his hind legs in the flight at the top of the straight in the Totesport Hurdle.

As such he comes here still off a very handy mark of 141, and based on his French form he appreciated a sounder surface. As such, and at 14/1 he's worth an early play in the market.

1pt Win - Spirit River @ 14s (Will Hill / Paddy Power)

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) Grade 1 2m5f

2010-03-17T14:26:00.000Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 9 March 2010 21:51
subject The NHC - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) Grade 1 2m5f
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 9 Mar (8 days ago)

Trends for this race:

10 / 10 Aged 5 / 6
10 / 10 Ran in 1 - 6 Hurdles that season
10 / 10 Ran in the last 60 days
9 / 10 Won over 2m4f +
9 / 10 Finished 1st or 2nd on all completed hurdle starts
9 / 10 First 5 in the betting

Market

Rite Of Passage (7/2) , Finians Rainbow (7) , Quel Esprit (7) , Peddlers Cross (9) , Reve De Sivola (12) , Get Me Out Of Here (16) , Quantitativeeasing (16) , Summit Meeting (16) , Fionnegas (20) , Restless Harry (20) , Ghizao (25) , Manyriverstocross (25) , Morning Supreme (25) , Shinrock Paddy (25) , Tell Massini (25) , Wishful Thinking (25) , Arvika Ligeonniere (33) , Enterprise Park (33) , General Miller (33) , Loosen My Load (33) - Others 33 or more

Rite Of Passage

Finished a good 3rd to Dunguib in the Champion Bumper has improved to win some notable races since, in particular the November Handicap on the flat beating Donnas Palm giving 11lbs.
Beat Grey Soldier on his hurdle debut, Grey Soldier since won, but let the form down at Kempton when upped in class. He improved on that run to beat the consistent sort Healys Bar at Punchestown, however he is nothing other than that. At current prices of 7/2 he's been priced more on his proximity to Dunguib rather than his form over hurdles, and as such I think it's worth looking elsewhere.

Finians Rainbow

Ex PTP'er he has improved race on race. Beat Sereth on hurdle debut; Sereth was a Cesarewitch 3rd and a decent winner when beating Wester Ross at Huntingdon. He was beaten when stepped up in class for the Challow Hurdle, yet I feel there are excuses for that defeat.
Looking at his form so far he has won when there's been quicker ground, and found the Heavy conditions against him there. He is a very nice sort, however I feel that this season is very much an educational one. Connections feel that he is a year behind due to him falling sick after his PTP run and as such falls outside a couple key trends - 3rd this season and aged 7.
Definately a chaser to follow though next season.

Quel Esprit

Found the Champion Bumper trip too sharp for him, it's no surprise that he has been campaigned over further this year.
He has been beating decent yardsticks over hurdles in the form of Hugo De Vindency, and improved markedly for the step up in trip to 3m to account for Last Straw who has been running decent races in Graded company in Ireland.
However, he was found out when dropped back to 2m4f when defeated by Coole River. Coole River is being kept for Punchestown and a Cheltenham tilt next year over fences, however on the back of this defeat, Mullins was still insistent that this race would be what Quel Esprit runs in. Due to this defeat, and his likeness for a true test, I can't have him at 7s.

Peddlers Cross

Comes here as one of the inexperienced horses, yet he has the form in the book to be a big player.
Took his NHF win well when accounting for some decent types, Bescot Springs rated 111, Sure Fire Josie multiple hurdle winner rated 122, Hard Act placed at Catterick earlier this week.
First time over hurdles he beat what looked a poor field, yet Alverstone gives it some solidity, 3rd to Ghizao in listed bumper at Cheltenham, and as stated he hacked up by an easy 21l.
Stepped upto Grade 2 company at Haydock he beat some reliable sorts. Scriptwriter, finished 6th in the Pertemps off 132 year before and Radium who finished a decent 4th to Get Me Out Of Here in a Hcap hurdle.
As such and with NRNB on offer, he has to be a bet at 9s

Reve De Sivola

Had to be one of the highest rated non winning novices last year finishing 6th to Zaynar in last years Triumph.
With another summer on his back, he was stepped up in trip and beat Frascati Park with ease in the Persian War Hurdle at Cheltenham, yet was found out when beaten by Tell Massini over Course and Distance. Even with the jumping mistakes in the Challow he was able to defeat Finians Rainbow and Restless Harry, but due to these jumping errors, I have to overlook him here.

Summit Meeting

Comes here on the back of a good win against Arvika Ligeonniere at Fairyhouse, where Post race quotes suggested that this would put him spot on for Cheltenham. With this likely to be his preferred entry, he deserves some respect.
I think you can put a line through his run in the Barry & Sandra Memorial. He was travelling well and then emptied quickly, it was also at time when the Harrington yard was far from firing. His bumper form holds up well when you consider he beat Al Ferof, Champion Bumper elect now with Paul Nicholls, and following that race his trainer stated - "The Cheltenham hill should suit him".
As such I think he has to be looked at closely at 16/1

2pt Win - Peddlers Cross @ 9s (Victor Chandler) 8s Generally
0.5pt EW - Summit Meeting @ 16s Generally

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Chelt 16th Mar - 14:40 3m Hcap Chs

2010-03-16T17:02:00.001Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 16 March 2010
subject The NHC - Chelt 16th Mar - 14:40 3m Hcap Chs
mailed-by googlemail.com

Trends

10 / 10 Aged 7-10
10 / 10 Carried 10-13 or less
10 / 10 Rated 143 or below
10 / 10 Won Class 3 or better
9 / 10 Won or placed in Listed/Graded Chase
9 / 10 Won 3m+
8 / 10 Placed last time out
8 / 10 Sub 10/1

Market

5 Bensalem 6 The Package 11 Ogee 12 Theatrical Moment, Character Building 16 The Tother One, Razor Royale, Exmoor Range, Niche Market, Casey Jones 22 Bar

Not a race that I'll get heavily involved with yet should prove interesting none the less.

Bensalem comes here rated 3lbs less than his hurdle mark, and if Diamond Harry has any chance of winning the RSA you'd have to think that Bensalem has to win this and fairly well. He has been far from fluent over fences and that is the danger faced today. Another worry has to be the ground. Appreciated he has won on the forecasted going yet it's different task he's faced with today. I'd let him win at 5s or less personally.

The Package looks like he's been laid out for two Cheltenham plots this season, one earlier in the season when beating The Tother One, and this today. 9lbs higher than that day, yet there's every reason to suggest that improvement is still likely, and that he had more than that up his sleeve that day. Finished 3rd off a mark of 131 over hurdles at here on Good ground, so there shouldn't be any worry on that front.

One that deserves a look at a bigger price for me is Chief Dan George. Feb - Apr he's 5 from 15, other times he's 2 from 25, as such, and following trainer quotes after his win over Tamarinbleu, he could belittle his current odds of 54/1 on Betfair.

He's a spring horse, and though he loved heavy ground over hurdles, he needs decent ground to help his jumping over fences, He's in the William Hill at Cheltenham, and he's also in the National but I doubt he'd get in that, but there will be another raceat Aintree for him. Then we might think about the Scottish National,-James Moffatt, trainer

This horse beat Sa Suffit last season at Kelso, Sa Suffit now rated 150+ and also behind him that day was Razor Royale. As stated, this is a no bet race for me, however do feel that CDG is overpriced @ 50s+ on Betfair and 33s gen.

Cheltenham Preview 2010 @ Warrington

2010-03-15T10:08:00.000Z

Just some feedback on tonights preview:

Andy Gibson (AG) - Andy is a professional punter and also runs the excellent web site 'Patterns and Profiles' for details of how Andy analyses races in depth please look at the web site http://www.patternsandprofiles.co.uk/

Martin Rigg (MR) - With so many Irish trained winners at the festival each year we are delighted to have Martin's expertise as Irish NH Handicapper for Timeform available on the night. Timeform are one of the oldest and renowned racing form guide providers in the UK - for further details please visit their web site at http://www.timeform.com/

Keith McHugh (KM) - Keith is becoming something of a rarity being a full time racing journalist on a regional newspaper but he knows his stuff and has won the Racing Post Newspaper Tipsters Naps Table in recent years. If you cannot get a copy of the Oldham Evening Chronicle you can find his daily tips here.

Note - AG was not happy that they hcaps were being looked at, and seemingly just picked out the fav in every race.

Supreme

AG - 5yr stats odds on horse not good. Take advantage of the PP offer and back the field accordingly with the added inclusion of their £100 free bet for £50 stake.
KM - GMOOH Champion elect, Blackstairmountain EW and Dan Breen EW
MR - Not as easy as odds suggest. ROP if running, GMOOH ew.

Arkle

AG - Likes CCB but short. Somersby has to improve on current form in book. Shakervilz big ew price.
KM - CCB too short for a faller lto. SE best fresh, and all wrong in Champion Hurdle. Riverside Theatre EW bet @ 8s
MR - Impressed with Somersby at Sandown. (AG had dig at MR for not actually being from Ireland)

Champion Hurdle

AG - Doesn't do inside info, but worked with Imperial Commanders connections and Paddy Brennan can't see Kyber Kim being beat. AG thinks he's best before Jan. Go Native best form, but worry he may beat himself by being there too soon.
KM - Trappy race, and can make case for most. Binocular never right at Kempton, and his pick.
MR - No front runner, could result in messy race = speed for Go Native. Lack of pace hurt Solwhit chances. Didn't want to go into too much detail when I asked about the Byrne yard.

Neptune

AG - Gave mentions to Quel Esprit (Too short now though) and Peddlers Cross
KM - Stated Mullins bullish on Quel, and has ROP @ 6s
MR - ROP wins. Likes him based on Flat Form in Nov H'cap. Champion Hurdle elect.

RSA Chase

AG - Missed the boat with 7/4 on a Henderson winner. Comes across as an Arber. Wants Citizen Vic back2lay.
KM - Long Run.
MR - Punchestown W and Weapons Amnesty to sneak a place.

QM Champion Chase

AG - Kalahari King should won Arkle, more compact field will help. Back him IR when settled at rear. Well Chief without MM @ 20s ew.
KM - Master Minded.
MR - Master Minded brilliant, and takes this. Forpadydeplaster flattered and not good enough.

Coral Cup & Fred Winter

AG - Watching brief - Ultimate for Cheltenham
KM - CC = Quantitativeeasing/Wishful Thinking and City Theatre. FW = Notus De La Tour.
MR - CC = Cest Ca - FW = Bywell Bridge.

Bumper

AG - Not overly interested. If had to pick one Bishopsfurze. Impressed by Shoot From The Hip lto, and Mullins yard like Tavern Times based on work.
KM - No Bet
MR - Place laying Drumbaloo sub 2s. Bubbly Bruce at a price looks a stayer.

Pertemps

AG & MR Keen on Alfie Sherrin. MR stated a judge he rates as the best said this wins end of.
MR & KM Like Smoking Aces ew.

Ryanair

AG - Tranquil Sea if on Soft Ground. Better ground look for better value - Has Albertas @ 50s+ for pennies. Schindlers Hunt ew if drifting. VPU 1122 at Festival.
KM - Albertas Run decent price.
MR - Tranquil Sea with a word for J'y Vole.

World Hurdle

AG - Betting W/out BB - Time For Rupert ew and in Match bet with Sentry Duty
KM - Tidal Bay fan, BB unbackable at price. Cousin Vinny at a price ew.
MG - Big Bucks.

Triumph

AG - Much of muchness. Westlin Winds ew.
KM - Weak. Notus De La Tour if running.
MR - Class apart = Alaivan. Excuses for defeat.

County Hurdle

AG - Any Given Day - Interesting ride lto.
KM - Henderson Novices.
MR - Noble Prince.

Albert Bartlett

AG - The Betchworth Kid on better ground.
KM - Restless Harry, Mullins likes Enterprise Park and Wymott ew
MR - Enterprise Park nice horse. Fionnegas no chance.

Gold Cup

AG - Imperial C and Cooldine Ew. My Will ew without Denman and Kauto. Can't have Denman.
KM - Kauto Star hard to avoid. Imperial Commander Ew
MR - Kauto Star has the edge. Casey Jones maybe to sneak 3rd.

Decent enough night all in all. Ffos Las racecourse not liked due to logistics (Chair spent a good 5 mins moaning about that)

Subscribers Email - The NHC - Paddy Power Imperial Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y

2010-03-13T15:21:00.002Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 10 March 2010
subject The NHC - Paddy Power Imperial Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y
mailed-by googlemail.com

hide details 10 Mar (3 days ago)

Main Trends

10 / 10 Highest RPR on 1 of last 2 Starts
10 / 10 Ran in 1 - 5 Hurdles since August
9 / 10 First 3 last time out
9 / 10 Won no more than twice over hurdles
9 / 10 Ran in 3 - 9 hurdles
5 / 10 Were sent off favourite

Market

Hunterview (5) , Qaspal (6) , Salut Flo (13/2) , Bellvano (15/2) , Pepe Simo (8) , Eradicate (10) , Aather (14) , Sway (14) , Caravel (16) , Fairyland (16) , Mohayer (16) , Oldrik (16) , Tocca Ferro (16) , Wade Farm Billy (18) , Press the Button (20) , Tender Falcon (20) , Chaninbar (25) , El Dancer (25) , Keki Buku (25) , Pascha Bere (25) - Others 25 or more

Early play in this revolves around the improving Qaspal

A confirmed runner today by Frank Berry, with Bellvano and Sway likely being held back for Cheltenham, and in good form as per Philip Hobbs it's hard to vision him being anything other than shorter on Saturday.

Hunterview would be of interest, yet needs 12 to come out, and Salut Flo has eyes fixed on The Jewson rather than this. As such, and with 2 already confirmed as NR above him in the weights, Qaspal is of serious interest before start to look ar this form.

Buried on his first 3 starts over hurdles, he won well at Kempton and won with ease at Sandown when going was against him. 14lbs higher here, yet there's still ample improvement there to suggest that this quicker ground and likely quick pace will play well into his hands.

1pt Win Qaspal @ 6s Generally

Subscribers Email - Winc 11th Mar - 16:05 3m1f Nov Chs

2010-03-11T16:16:00.000Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 11 March 2010
subject Winc 11th Mar - 16:05 3m1f Nov Chs
mailed-by googlemail.com

With ground continuing to dry out at Wincanton, it makes the 4:05 an interesting betting heat.

Richard's Sundance comes here on the back of a comprehensive H'cap Chase Course and Distance win, yet looking at his form, that is what he needs to perform to his best, Heavy/Very Soft ground. Since his maiden win he has competed in 7 races on a variety of ground:

Good to Soft or better: P32P
Soft or worse: U11

As such it gives us value to look elsewhere.

Blazing Bailey unconvincing win last time out doesn't breed confidence, yet it may bereed confidence for him and this ex World Hurdle runner deserves respect in this company, but when reviewing the race, he never seemed to travel and only looked the winner on the way for home, as such the ground that day would have helped, and his victory there was more to do with class, as he beat nothing of note.

Gullible Gordon has a very poor run to put behind him. He was deemed to have sulked last time out after making a mistake early on in the race, and add in his unseating the race before he has questions to answer with regards to jumping. Another who is likely to find the quicker ground against him also when you consider his best hurdle run was when beating Kayf Aramis on soft ground.

The above three all like to sit up with the pace, and this is likely to suit the selection, Fairoak Lad.

Fairoak Lad is 2 from 2 at this course and 4 from 7 when the ground is described as Good or better. His Novice Chase win is not overly impressive on first glance jumping way out to the right at every fence, yet he was still good enough to account for a poor field. Back over the smaller obstacles, he took advantage of Night Cru's fall to win off 122 and followed that up with a return to fences when running a good 3rd to seasoned chases at Ascot off a mark of 130. The step up to Grade 1 level was too much for him, and his jumping that day was far from fluent on ground softer than ideal, as such, he's been given a couple months off to school, and has been mentioned in recent gallop reports.

As such, with the ground continuing to dry, and the Hobbs yard in fine form 11/2 with Betfred is value.

1pt Win - Fairoak Lad - 11/2 Betfred (B.O.G. Online)

Subscribers Email - Kelso 6th Mar - 16:10 2m2f Nov Hrd

2010-03-06T19:51:00.001Z

Washington Irvine comes here looking to rebuild his reputation, however I feel he will struggle to reverse placings with the winner that day Bygones Of Brid.

Bygones Of Brid has some good runs to date, but doesn't seem to enjoy travelling anywhere of note. Two trips to Cheltenham and one to Chepstow have been fruitless, however when campaigned in the north, his form is second to none.

Beat Going Wrong at Newcastle over 2m6f, Going Wrong accounted for Wymott the time before and has been earmarked as a classy chaser in the making. Here Bygones Of Brid ran well from the front and battled well under pressure to get back up and win cosily. Following his trip to Cheltenham, he came back to Newcastle and accounted for Washington Irvine relatively easily. Once again up with the pace, sent to the front on home turn he out battled and out jumped Washington Irvine to win more cosily than the official distance suggested that day, and even with a pull in the weights today, he should find it hard to claw it back here on a tiring straight in Heavy conditions.

However, Bygones Of Brid's best form is his 2nd to Ranjobaie giving 17lbs away. Ranjobaie is rated 129 officially, and was beaten by the current Fred Winter Favourite Notus De La Tour, so there form is there to suggest he was beaten by a good horse at Market Rasen. As mentioned earlier, he may not be the best of travellers, and now that he EBF Final is out of the question due to his h'cap mark, and that Cheltenham ground will likely be quicker than ideal, this looks like it has become his main target.

The tiring run in should play to his strengths in being able to stay further than this, and Predictive should be up there with him from the off. Predictive has done nothing wrong over hurdles so far, and has been running in owners benefit races at Uttoxeter, however this is a big step up in class for him here.

As such an early price of 11/4 - 3/1 looks achievable for Bygones Of Brid, and should be taken.

1pt Win - Bygones Of Brid - Best Morning Price (11/4 or better)

Subscribers Email - Here 1st Mar - 15:30 2m3f Nov Chs

2010-03-01T16:06:00.005Z

from Daniel Kelly
to Daniel Kelly
date 1 March 2010
subject Here 1st Mar - 15:30 2m3f Nov Chs
mailed-by googlemail.com

Morning,

Race of interest today is the 3:30 at Hereford.

With Recif De Thaix likely to ensure a good gallop today this is likely to play into the hands of todays selection, Awesome George. Recif De Thaix has yet to prove he stays this far, and weakened last time out at Wincanton when making his handicap debut and is far from the best chaser in the Nicholls yard, I expect him to struggle in todays company. His beating of Songe does not read overly impressive, as I believe Songe is far from his hurdle rating when it comes to fences.

Cool Friend has a usful weight pull today from Awesome George, however none of her performances over fences so far suggests that a drop in trip is what she was craving for. Also I refer back to a quote after she won at Exeter, "...I had questioned whether she would handle the rain softerned ground.", also noted for not finding as much off the bridle as expected, she is another I'm happy to overlook.

Brings me to the selection. Awesome George is a relatively trick ride and its no surprise to see that his ride out worker at home, Charlie Huxley, gets on well with him. From 11 career starts under Charlie he has won 5 and placed in a further 2, yet for Robert Thornton his form 5U23, and a further trainer quote confirms this after his win at Ascot; "I'm chuffed for Charlie, who rides him every day at home. Young jockeys need a flagship horse and this could be a very big year for him."

He was held when pecking 4 out at Cheltenham, yet that was a far classier race than this, and it's argued he's far from his best Left Handed. Form under Charlie:

LH - 12715
RH - 411531

As such, and with the pace likely to be there in the form of Ginolad and Recif De Thaix, it's hard to get away from Awesome George here and with the yard now in better form, this just breeds confidence.

1pt Win - Awesome George @ 15/8 Generally

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2010-02-28T07:52:00.001Z

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Kemp 27th Feb - 13:30 2m5f Hcap Hrd

2010-02-27T07:49:00.001Z

Connections of Wolf Moon will no doubt have their eye on the Pertemps final at Cheltenham, it could pay to look away from him today. Note that prior to his win at Cheltenham back in November he was given a spin at Towcester over this trip to put him spot on and quote following his Cheltenham win in January suggests that today is far from the day "...we'll freshen him up for the final."

Others in the field are overlooked due to current form. Numide comes here on the back of some poor runs, granted in better company, but still he's 6lbs higher than when winning the Greatwood, and the trip today will likely stretch his stamina to the limit. Dante Hall struggled off 109 in Ireland, so it's hard to make a case for him here off 125, even if he did get within 12 lengths of Dunguib back in November. Stow has dropped 11lbs since beginning of season, and as such is still to show any glimmer of form that saw him win the Juvenile at Haydock. Rathcor has suffered from breathing problems throughout his career, today with the tongue tie back on it'd be interesting to see if this could bring about an upturn in fortunes, but this is a better race than the one he won under today's pilot at Towcester. River D'Or was bought on the back of an "impressive" win in Auteuil, shame that not one of the 9 horses behind him that day has won since. Has been readily held in two of his UK appearances and it's difficult to make a case for him here. Amazingly the RP priced him up as 13/8 Fav.

Stripe Me Blue has been running well in better races however he is 11lbs (inc jockeys claim) higher than when he last won, and for with 20 hurdle starts already under his belt, further improvement seems unlikely. Nick Williams is a yard in form with 2 winners from 5 runners in the last 14 days and has Sangfroid here, however he too is becoming exposed and being used more as a form marker more than a winnable sort. Cabinet Minister won well last time out, but the step up in trip is an unknown, the added penalty of a 7lb rise and also the unlikely event of an uncontested lead results in him being overlooked today.

Two for me here stick out and that is Clova Island and Helpston.

Following a good 4th to Spirit River at Cheltenham on Soft ground, Clova Island ran well over course and distance last time out to suggest he's well worth another try here. Looking back at that race though he seemed to weaken between the last two flights, and looking back at his form he does seem to appreciate good in the going description, and that is why I'm overlooking him here as when here last time out he was beaten by Lake Legend, who won off a mark of 135 that day. Lake Legend has only two defeats to his name over hurdles, one when pulling up on his seasonal debut when the Alan King yard was struggling, and the other was when beaten by Helpston at Leicester.

Now before I go back to that run, lets get this seasons runs out the way. Newbury, well prior to his Warwick run this is what Pam Sly had to say; "He was a bit late starting this season. He tired very quickly at Newbury in November and I don't think we had him fully fit. He's very well now and he should get the distance on his pedigree, although he might have preferred slightly better ground.". Slightly better ground wouldn't have gone amiss when running at Warwick, but the fact that he's brought back to his preferred trip of 2m5f (3 runs 2 plc 1 win) says it all.

Helpston's 3 runs at this trip has good form look to it too. Gave a 4 length beating to Lake Legend at Leicester, and followed that up with a good 2nd to Pause And Clause over course and distance. That day Helpston gave away 8lbs and Pause And Clause went on to place in that years Corals Cup. The following run was just as good when finishing 3rd to Time For Rupert at Huntingdon in last years renewal of the Sidney Banks. Once again giving weight away, 4lbs to Time For Rupert and Cracboumwiz, he did well to finish so close when you consider he seemingly does his best work when sitting off a pace, which he didn't have last time out.

Back down in trip here, and with the likes of Cabinet Minster, Stow and Stripe Me Blue being known to run from the front, the pace should be there for him to settle today. Add in the fact that the yard is in decent form, with his half-sister Chicklemix winning as recently as the 19th Feb, suggests that he should be in the best of shape for today's race.

1pt EW - Helpston @ Best Morning Early Price

Hunt 25th Feb - 15:35 2m4f Nov Hrd

2010-02-25T09:05:00.000Z

On Official Ratings they can not be split, yet at the prices, Master Of The Hall is 8/11 and The Minack comes here 2s+ and as such The Minack has to be the play in this race.

Beaten by Tell Massini in his only defeat to date, his blunder at an important stage of the race was no doubt one of the reasons why Nicholls and Walsh thought that he was too inexperienced for Cheltenham Festival, but even taking that into account he has still ran some very good races. Second that day was Kennel Hill, has since finished a good 3rd to Wymott in a Grade 2, yet The Minack overcame this enigmatic sort next time out at Kempton in similar conditions. Even though many could argue he was gifted that race, I still feel it was a good enough run to suggest he'd be up to taking a Grade 2 race at the very least.

Master Of The Hall comes here on the back of two good novice wins over 2m, yet both have questions against them with regards to form. Sonowyouno is far from a 130 rated hurdler, and as form suggest he's best seen on GS at worse, Quintessentially and King Of Leon have failed to win in lower graded company also. His defeat of Nice One Eric is a good effort, yet Nice One Eric has been raced for a handicap mark and won't be seen to best effect until stepping up in trip, as will Robinson Collognes a stablemate of the selection.

I can only gather that the fact that Ruby is riding in Ireland in a Grade 2 Hurdle rather than here is one of the reasons you are looking at 5/2 for The Minack.

1pt W - The Minack @ 5/2 (Betfred)

Blue Square Gold Cup Haydock

2010-02-20T00:24:00.001Z

Following on from the email below, the last few days has done nothing to think that I shouldn't be interested in these two.

Silver By Nature's trainer had a winner at Kelso in Mr Preacher Man a pointer as mentioned earlier that the Lucinda Russell yard is now bang in form, as such and at the weights, it's hard to not think that the 6s being offered by the sponsors, Blue Square, isn't value. Latest quote below:

Silver By Nature had his final canter and popped over a few fences before his tilt at the Haydock Gold Cup tomorrow. He seems in good form with himself and Peter Buchanan feels that he may have improved a little since his run in the Welsh National. Jaimie and Silver By Nature left for Haydock this afternoon and all we need now is some milder weather this evening.

1pt Win - Silver By Nature 6/1 - Blue Square

Re Oscar Park, it was just a question of whether he'll be entered or not. With that being confirmed and trainer in confident mood, 22/1 with Coral is too big for a horse that is a 11lbs lower than his hcap hurdle winning mark.

And Arbuthnot said: “He’s come out of the race very well and it was his first run over fences for a long time
“Obviously this is a lot more competitive race. I think he’ll handle the ground and he’ll like the trip.
“He’s 11 years old now and getting on but he still showing the same enthusiasm.”

1pt Win - Oscar Park 22/1 - Coral

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Daniel Kelly
Date: 17 February 2010 20:16
Subject: NHC - Ante Post Preview - Blue Square Gold Cup Haydock
To: Daniel Kelly

Evening,

With only the Blue Square Gold Cup priced up as yet, it's the subject of this weeks Ante Post analysis.

Current Market:

Le Beau Bai (7) , Silver By Nature (7) , The Package (7) , Dream Alliance (10) , Miko De Beauchene (10) , Coe (12) , According To Pete (16) , Ballyfitz (16) , Laventure (16) , Mon Mome (16) , According To John (20) , Arbor Supreme (20) , Ballytrim (25) , Beat The Boys (25) , Hello Bud (25) , Our Vic (25) , Pomme Tiepy (25) , Chief Dan George (33) , Oscar Park (33) , Irish Raptor (40) - Others 66 or more

Trends:

10 from 10 - Finished 1st or 2nd in last two runs
9 from 10 - Top 3 last time out
9 from 10 - Fell or Unseated no more than once
9 from 10 - Won at least over 3m
8 from 10 - No more than 11 Chase starts to date
8 from 10 - Carried less than 11-1
8 from 10 - Class 2 Chase winners

Others of Note - No 12yo winner. Only been one Irish Trained victor, Nuaffe 95.

Taking the above into account, I have narrowed the field down to the following runners; Le Beau Bai, Silver By Nature, The Package, Dream Alliance and Oscar Park.

Le Beau Bai has been highly touted for this race, yet on the basis of his run behind Silver By Nature and Dream Alliance, it's hard to gauge how the placings can be reversed. Silver By Nature clouted the last and lost momentum, but still rallied well. Dream Alliance has a career high mark to contend with and with there question marks with regards to his participance he is overlooked here. 11 chase starts already to his name, it's hard to imagine him improving further still in a race that Philip Hobbs has failed to win.

Looking at previous running's, this race is normally won by a unfamiliar yard, and as such this brings us around to my current selections for the race.

Silver By Nature continues to improve for Lucinda Russell and comes here in rude health. His form in the Coral Welsh National gives him a favourites chance alone, yet there's suggestions that there is still more to come. Lucinda had a few placed efforts earlier this week to suggest that the yard is getting back into full swing with SIlver By Nature without doubt the stable star. At current odds of 7/1 it's hard not to be attracted to bet, but can't see it shortening much in the run up to Saturday, so can just be left at the moment.

One that does take the eye is Oscar Park. Arbuthnot yard is in decent form with Silver Dollars winning today at Musselburgh following a good placed effort just 10 days earlier, Oscar Park comes here after a good run less than 2 weeks behind a good yardstick in Daldini. Winner of a hurdle race off a mark of 140 at Cheltenham, he comes here rated 129. Interestingly 3 of the last 9 winners have won off bottom weight, (Heltornic, Ossmoses, Young Kenny) and when you take into consideration his quotes prior to his run in April 09 "He's ten, but he's had very little racing and I can wait for next year." Currently 33/1 (69/1 on Betfair) he has to be backed, but do so only if not declared for Fakenham on Friday. Even when the books price him up after declarations, I can see him being 20s and will be worth a couple £ then.

Further look at Saturdays cards will follow on Friday evening, but at the moment I am looking forward to seeing Rock Noir @ Ascot run. French Champion 4yo in a handicap off 152? Lets see how they price it up on Friday night before getting too excited.

Regards
Dan

Quantitativeeasing to be eased away from victory?

2010-02-11T23:03:00.005Z

Post from Evan Williams Racing on Thursday 12th November 2009

Thursday 12th November 2009
Today we went to Ludlow races where we managed to win the Novice's Hurdle with the exciting Phidippides. Having his first run for us and his first run over hurdles, Paul Moloney settled him in mid division and cruised to the front approaching the second last flight to go away and win unextended. We were all extremely pleased with this result as the race looked quite competitive beforehand and hopefully this fella can go onto bigger and better things in the future although he is backward so he will be limited to only a few races.

So...the next port of call is a simple novice hurdle against a Cheltenham fancy in Quantitativeeasing and a bunch of other highly regarded animals in Tocca Ferro and The Betchworth Kid.

That'll do me considering you are likely to be able to get a double figure price in the morning. Lets take a look at his form:

2l defeat into 3rd at the hands of General Miller, who was found out last time out when stepped up in trip to 2m5f, yet has a good 2m win to his name at Cheltenham. Second that day was Voladar who has ran well this season, and has won a hcap hurdle off 119. So first run for a backward sort who idled and ran green was a very successful one.

First time out this season was interesting, but not only that, it was his actual first entry that was the interesting bit, Persian War Hurdle @ Chepstow. Unfortunately he suffered a setback, yet he didn't disappoint when seeing a obstacle for the first time in public. As stated above, accounted for the field very easily, and it wasn't a bad one. Double Dash was found out next time out over 2m5f on heavy ground, yet waltzed to victory over 2m off a mark of 110 by 13l. Al Amaan finished an outpaced 4th to Riverside Theatre on his outing before.

As such, and with being the only distance winner in the field, Phidippides should be a lot shorter than the 12s being offered by Paddy Power at present, I think I maybe greedy and wait for a few extra pts.

1pt Win Phidippides (Best Early Morning Price (12s @ posting with PP) ***25/1 available generally, and taken!***

Newb 13th Feb - TS Trophy

2010-02-11T01:04:00.002Z

With Blue Bajan likely to stand his ground, this looks the makings of a very decent renewal. Now lets narrow the field. I like to normally have a trends pick and a form pick when it comes to the bigger races, and that'll become evident over the next few weeks when the Jump Season jumps into overdrive as we head towards the festivals.
So lets look at the trends for this race:

5 to 7yo
Carrying 11-0+ and OR 131 to 144
First 3 last time out in a Class 2 +
Second season hurdler
Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season

Coincidentally, the trends pick out only one horse, that being Fairyland. OR of 133, ran in 6 h'cap races and won a Listed Handicap last time out with Micheal Flips behind her that day who has since won a good prize at Kempton. However for me the nagging doubt has to be the projected ground. Granted she did win on GS that day, however if the weather front comes as expected, and I can only see it easing. A further point, is the form of her win here has some holes in it. Michael Flips has come and won since, but that was over 2m5f on bottomless ground, hardly comparable to 2m on GS at Newbury, Frontier Dancer, Trafalgar Road and Nampour have struggled since also. Due to this, and market vibes suggesting they have better chance in the yard, she's overlooked here.

Now there is one piece of course form which is the one to focus on here, and thats Get Me Out Of Here's win back in November. GMOOH has not been seen since, for the sole reason JON thinks he has a good tool on his hands here. He was backed for the Ladbroke, until it was pulled, and no surprise to see him backed again here, the reason being his form stacks up. Spirit River was 5l down to him that day (given an education UK debut ride) and comes here current favourite, for me these two have it between them, purely on the basis that they are still so unexposed. GMOOH wandered as recently as 3 starts back, and Spirit River took the Cheltenham race in great style. Top weight in bottomless condition suggesting that he was a class animal, and times that day suggested this was the case. Off marks of 141 and 135 I think that Spirit River and Get Me Out Of Here will have the race between them here.

1pt Win Spirit River @ 6s Generally
1pt Win Get Me Out Of Here @ 10s Generally